Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SF is up 5 cents and near 11.58. SMF is near 387.6. BOF is near 37.41. CH21 is unchanged and near 4.23. WH21 is down 3 cents and near 5.85. KWH21 is down 3 cents and near 5.51. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Copper is higher.
There continues to be rumors of China buying US 2021 new crop soybeans. May be April US corn.
China has bought $13 billion US AG goods vs Phase 1 deal $36 billion. Could take $43 billion in 2021.
Some essential US workers could get Covid virus vaccine in December.
USDA now estimated US farmer net income near 7 year high and $134.1 billion and up 23 pct from 2019
Increase includes $46.3 billion in direct government payments ($24 Covid). Soybean prices up 20 pct from Sep.
US will pass new law delisting any China stock that does not comply with US accounting rules.
Bulls hope overall dryness in parts of South America and US plains will support/rally prices. Argentina soybean crush down 12 pct yoy. Exporters need to convert dollars to peso within 15 days.
US weekly soybean export sales estimated near 400-1,150 mt versus 768 last week. US corn export prices are lowest to buyers. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 800-1,600 mt vs 1,665 lw.
Rumors of China buying US April corn. US farmer still not selling. Ethanol demand still down due to Covid
India sold export wheat $10 below Black Sea. They could export 7 mmt vs USDA guess of 1 mmt. 13 pct of Russia winter wheat crop yet to emerge vs estimate that plantings will be up 10 pct yoy. Weekly US wheat exports sales est near 250-700 mt. Rumors on China buying US HRW and/or White wheat.
Soybean, corn and wheat futures now up to money flow, weather and demand for US 2021 exports. Bulls hope 11.42 SF, 380 SMF, 414 CH and 5.74 WH will prove to be good support.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 12,000 Corn; and sellers of 8,000 Soybeans; 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 1,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 258,000 Corn; net long 172,000 Soybeans; net long 61,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 99,000 Soyoil.
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