Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Ahead of today’s USDA WASDE report prices across the Ag space are mixed. Energy prices have backed up since Pres. Trump late yesterday suggested the war with Iran may end soon. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards countered by stating they would not allow any oil to leave the Middle East until the US/Israeli attacks cease. News that a handful of tankers have safely moved thru the Straits of Hormuz combined with indications G7 nations may tap strategic reserves to combat soaring energy prices has also led to the price correction. Spot crude is currently down $4.60 at $90.20 down sharply from yesterday’s high at $119.48. Spot RBOB is currently $.50 gallon off yesterday’s high with HO off $.95 gallon. Analysts expect little change in US ending stocks in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Recent rains have brought relief to much of Argentina corn and soybean crop areas. Only rains past 24 hours in the far north and SW Buenos Aires. Late season rains still beneficial for crops in the South. Widespread rains across N. Brazil will help build moisture reserves however slow remains soybean harvest and 2nd corn plantings. Drier outlook to the South. In the US rains in the past 24 hours were restricted to the Delta and SE. Precipitation over the next week to again favor the central and ECB with lighter amounts in the Northern plains. Little to no precipitation for the far WCB. Cooler than normal temperatures for much of the ECB and Great Lakes region. Warmer temp’s in WCB gradually sliding east in week 2 of the outlook. The US $$ is sharply lower. US stock indices are little changed.
Corn:
May-26 is down $.01 at $4.52 ½ having nearly filled a gap lower open overnight. Dec-26 is down $.02 at $4.79 ½. Huge speculative selling yesterday took the MM long position down to about 60k contracts. Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian corn production forecast 2 mmt to 133 mmt on lowered 2nd crop acres due to planting delays. This forecast compares to the current USDA est. of 131 mmt.
Soybeans:
May-26 beans are up $.02 at $11.98 ¼ in choppy 2 sided trade. May-26 meal is up $3.80 at $317.30 while May-26 oil is down 10 points at $.66 lbs. Spot board crush margins pulled back $.09 yesterday to $2.20 ½ bu. while bean oil PV holding just above 51%. US Treasury Sec. Bessent and Ambassador Greer are expected to meet with Chinese trade officials in Paris next weekend ahead of Pres. Trump/Xi meeting in Beijing in late March. Unlikely we’ll see additional Chinese buying of US beans with Gulf FOB offers running $1.00-$1.30 over Brazilian offers into the summer months Look for some shifting of bean oil demand away from biofuels into other domestic usage and/or higher stocks. No big changes expected for SA production. Chinese soybean imports from all sources in Feb-26 at 5.98 mmt were up 2.6% from Feb-25. In the first 2 months of 2026 imports at 12.55 mmt are down nearly 8% due to harvest delays in Brazil and late year imports from the US.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.02 to $.09 lower. CGO May-26 is down $.02 ¾ at $6.00 ½, well off the overnight lows at $5.85 ½. KC May-26 is down $.01 ¼ at $6.18 ½, roughly $.20 off the lows. Crop ratings in KS slipped 2% to 56% G/E. Conditions rose 5% in OK to 24% G/E while holding steady in TX at only 16% G/E.
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