Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 1 cent and near 13.89. SMH is near 413.7. BOH is near 58.89. CH is down 1 cent and near 6.08. WH is down 5 cents and near 7.64. KWH is down 6 cents and near 7.97. MWZ is down 7 cents and near 9.63.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, cocoa and cotton are higher. Copper, coffee and sugar lower.
Dalian corn, soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Rapeseed oil lower. Dalian palmoil prices are at new contract highs, soyoil prices are at 9 week highs. Matif rapeseed futures traded to all-time highs. Lower supplies SBO/PO unable for biodiesel.
US soyoil futures are higher on talk of higher exports and increase demand for biodiesel. Soybeans are higher on concern over SA supplies. Some est Brazil near 134 vs USDA 144. Parana and MGDS Governors declared state of emergency. Parana yields down 39 pct=10 mmt. Trade/close over 14.00 SH could test June high near 14.45. New highs SMH. Next resistance 456. Higher soybean price action could begin to weigh on US soybean board crush margins. There were rumors yesterday that some China crushers are short cash and need to buy futures.
Recent CH high was near 6.17. Argentina heat during pollination could drop their crop. Some estimate Brazil corn crop near 113 mmt vs USDA 118. Argentina 52 vs USDA 54.5. There were rumors yesterday that China may be ready to buy 5-7 mmt US corn.
Some wheat futures long liquidation overnight. Lower US monthly HRW crop ratings supportive. Russia may not export 36 mmt wheat. World demand up 5-7 mmt, 2021 stocks down 10 mmt. 2022 N Hemisphere must increase 15-20 mmt to help increase export supply limit price gain.
Some estimate US Dec 1 corn stocks at 11,700 mil bu vs 11,294 ly. Sep-Nov use 4,461 4,743 ly.
Some estimate US Dec 1 soybean stocks at 3,100 mil bu vs 2,947 ly. Sep-Nov use 1,575 1,797 ly.
Some estimate US Dec 1 wheat stocks at 1,350 mil bu vs 1,703 ly. Sep-Nov use 451 vs 483 ly.
Some est US 2022 wheat acres at 48.5 vs 46.7 ly. Winter wheat 33.9 vs 33.6. Spring 12.7 vs 11.4.
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