Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are mixed. SK is up 3 cents and near 16.48. SMK is near 460.9. BOK is near 73.07. CK is down 5 cents and near 7.52. CZ is near 7.05. WK is down 2 cents and near 10.17. KWK is down 2 cents and near 10.66. MWK is down 2 cents and near 10.97.
US stocks are higher. Crude is near $97. Ukraine war continues. China economy slowing. US Fed to fight inflation. US Midwest dry west and wet east.
Wheat futures are lower on talk World buyers are shifting demand from old crop to new. USDA is not expected to make big changes to today’s US/World supply and demand. They are expected to wait until key May report. USDA may be too high in EU and Back Sea exports but where do they shift demand? US wheat export commit is down 24 pct vs last year.
Corn futures are lower before USDA report. Market has been trading higher on talk of higher US corn export demand and lower Ukraine exports. USDA may not make big changes until key May report. Central Brazil is dry but CONAB increased the corn crop from 112 mmt to 115 and 2nd crop a record 88 mmt. Argentina lowered their crop rating from 32 G/E to 21. Some estimate the crop near 49 mmt vs USDA 53. US corn export commit is down 18 pct vs last year.
Soybean futures are slightly higher. US soybean export commit is down 7 pct vs last year. CONAB lowered their soybean crop to 122 mmt vs USDA 127. Argentina lowered crop rating tp 25 pct G/E vs 32 last week. 9 pct crop harvested. Slow pace could be due to fuel shortages. Farmers trying to access impact frost had on crop. USDA could lower SA crops, China import demand? increase US soybean exports and lower US carryout. Higher sunoil prices helping soyoil prices.
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