Ag Prices Mixed in 2-Sided Trade

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Prices across the Ag space are mixed in 2-sided trade.  Futures recovered from a lower open following better than expected corn and soybeans ratings.  Spring wheat ratings slipped a bit more than expected. Energy prices are mixed as both the Straits of Hormuz and Kerch Straits remain largely closed to commercial traffic.  US military forces carried out strikes against Iranian targets for 10 consecutive days while Iran continues to to attack US forces in the region.  Reports suggest intermediaries are proposing a 10-day ceasefire in order to resume peace negotiations.  WTI Sept-26 crude oil is up $1.40 barrel near $83.90 while holding within yesterday’s range.  Spot RBOB is up $.02 per gallon while HO is steady.  Much of south central and E. IA saw healthy rainfall totals the past 24 hours ahead of a cool front.  Much of the N. Midwest and ECB will experience normal to below normal temperatures the next few days before temperatures rebound this weekend.  A system is likely to bring scattered rains into the WCB mid-week however the overall weather picture remain of concern with week 2 of the outlook holding in a hot/dry pattern.  Mostly favorable for the central and ECB.  W. Europe remains in a hot/dry pattern while cooler in the east with scattered precipitation.  Dry for much of Argentina and WC Brazil favorable for corn harvest.  Moderate to heavy rains expected in S. Brazil.  The US $$ is little changed while US equity markets are higher.

Corn: 

Sept-26 and Dec-26 are both down $.01 at $4.48 ½ and $4.72 respectively.  Sept-26 filled its chart gap from the Sunday night open while Dec-26 didn’t.  Corn conditions slipped 1% to 67% G/E, vs. expectations for a 2% drop.  Ratings improved in 9 states while declining in 9.  Overall ratings remain slightly above the historical average.  Ratings improved 5% in TX and 3% in NC and TN.  Ratings fell 10 in ND and CO while down 8% is SD.  59% of the crop is silking vs. 53% YA and 5-year Ave. of 54%.  13% of the crop is in the dough stage, matching YA.  Current ratings suggest an average US yield of 184.4 bpa with production at 16.044 bil., just above the USDA forecast of 16.0 bil.  AgRural reports Brazilian harvest has reached 49% as of late last week vs. 55% YA.

Soybeans: 

Aug-26 beans are down $.05 at $12.21 while Nov-26 is steady at $12.26.  Both are holding within yesterday’s range.  Next significant resistance for old crop is $12.58 ¼, the May-24 high on the weekly continuation chart.  Aug-26 meal is up $.50 at $324 while Aug-26 oil is down 18 points at 74.50.  Crush margins rebounded $.06 to $3.13 ½ bu.  US Gulf FOB offers remain $.10-$.20 above Brazilian offers thru Sept-26 while slipping to a $.05 discount by Nov-26.  Continued demand interest from China (and others) coupled with an uncertain weather outlook in the WCB will likely keep to path of least resistance to the upside.  Soybean ratings improved 1% to 66% G/E vs. expectations for a 1% decline.  Overall ratings remain above the historical average.  Conditions improved in 9 states, declined in 8 while holding steady in 1.  Ratings rose 13% in NC, and 5% in IA and MS.  Ratings fell 6% in AR and 5% in ND and SD.  66% of the crop is blooming, vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 60%.  32% of the crop is setting pods, above YA and 5-year Ave. of 24%.  Current ratings would suggest an average yield of 53.9 bpa with production at 4.511 bil vs. the USDA forecast of 4.475 bil.

Wheat: 

Prices are steady to $.03 lower in choppy 2-sided trade.  CGO Sept-26 is down $.02 ¾ at $6.71 ¼, KC Sept-26 is $.02 lower at $7.21 ¾ while MIAX Sept is $.01 lower at $6.91 ¼.  Supply disruptions from the Black Sea region coupled with expectations for lower production in the US/EU will likely keep the path of least resistance higher with volatility elevated.  Winter wheat harvest advanced to 74%, vs. 72% from YA and 5-year Ave. of 71%.  Spring wheat ratings fell 5% to 53% G/E vs. expectations for a 3% decline.  Despite the decline, overall ratings remain just above their historical average.  Conditions improved in WA while declining in ID, MN, MT, SD and ND.  86% of the crop is headed, in line with the 5-year Ave.  Crop ratings would suggest an average yield of 49.8 bpa and production at 452 mil. below the USDA July-26 forecast of 475 mil.  The annual Wheat Quality Council’s annual spring wheat crop tour begins today in ND.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.