Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Lucky 13? Soybean, corn and wheat futures are higher. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
SOYBEANS
SX is up 2 cents and near 10.13. Some feel SX could be in a choppy 9.85-10.20 range. Dalian soybeans are lower. Soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Hurricane Francine dumping rain on Delta. US Midwest remains dry. US domestic soybean basis is lower ahead of harvest. SX-SF spread remains wide. Brazil fob premiums were higher due to dry weather and water logistics. China may have bought more US PNW soybeans for Oct-Nov. USDA est China imports at 109 mmt or 10 mmt above private est. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 1,470 mt. USDA left US crop at 4.586 mil bu with record US soybean yield. US 2024/25 carryout was left near 550 mil bu. Some question USDA 150 mil bu increase in US exports vs ly. Lobbyist are trying to get UCO imports restricted.
CORN
CZ is up 4 cents and near 4.10. CZ-CH spread remains wide before US harvest. Some feel CZ could be in a choppy 3.85-4.20 range. Dalian Corn futures were lower. Corn is supported by dry US and South America weather. Weekly US corn export sales were only 666 mt. USDA is forecasting record Mexico corn domestic use. USDA increased us corn crop on 39 mil but still a record yield. USDA est US 2024/25 carryout down 16 mil bu. USDA increased EU, Mexico and SE Asia impots but dropped China 2 mmt.
WHEAT
WZ is up 7 cents and near 5.85. KWZ is also up 6 cents and near 3.92. MWZ is up 3 cents and near 6.23. USDA left US carryout at 828 mil bu, lowered EU crop 4 mmt and kept Russia crop at 83 mmt. USDA raised Australia, Canada and Ukraine wheat exports but lowered EU. Weekly US wheat export sales were 474 mt. Wheat supported by Russia drone attack on Ukraine grain vessel to Egypt. Russia wheat sales to Egypt was cheap.
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