Written Commentary
CORN
CZ remains near 4.07 before USDA report and harvest. There is talk that LA corn harvest is done. Trade est US corn harvest near 4 pct vs 5 last year. Trade also est weekly US corn crop rating at 64 pct G/E vs 65 last week and 52 ly. Weekly US corn exports were 836 mt vs 966 last week and 636 last year. Sep is a new marketing year for corn with season to date exports near 468 mt vs 636 last year. USDA goal is 2,250 vs 1,850 ly. Corn harvest is expected to keep futures near current levels or lower. US farmers should sell cash corn into carry into March.
SOYBEANS
SX remains near 10.16 before USDA report and harvest. There is talk that US 2024 crop could be losing a little off record yield due to dry August and another week of dry Midwest weather. There may also be some buying due to dry South America weather Trade also est weekly US soybean crop rating at 64 pct G/E vs 65 last week and 52 ly. Weekly US soybean exports were 354 mt vs 502 last week and 373 last year. Sep is a new marketing year for soybeans with season to date exports near 262 mt vs 373 last year. USDA goal is 1,850 vs 1,700 ly. Soybean harvest is expected to keep futures near current levels or lower. US farmers should sell cash soybeans into carry into March.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are lower. Not much new in wheat. Bulls feel prices re undervalued given talk that EU wheat crop could be down 3-4 mmt from USDA est and Russia crop could be down 10-12 mmt from last year. Bears feel aggressive Russia offering wheat for export and normal World 2025 wheat crops could limit gains. Trade est US spring wheat 84 pct done vs 70 last week and 87 last year. Trade also est US winter wheat plantings near 8 pct vs 2 last week and 7 last year. Tropical storm should make landfall Wednesday in LA and crop heavy rains across US Delta. Weekly US wheat exports were 586 mt. Season to date exports are 6.3 mmt vs 4.7 ly
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