Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.03 ½ – $.04 ½ higher in choppy 2 sided trade. Spreads also firmed. Dec-25 closed back above its 100 day MA with next resistance at LW’s high of $4.31 ¼. Support is at the 50 day MA at $4.14 ½. The USDA announced the sale of 123k mt (5 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. Argentina’s export tax on grains prior to the suspension was 9.5%. US crop ratings slipped 1% to 66% G/E. Despite declining for 7 consecutive weeks, overall ratings are still the highest since 2018. 91% of the crop is dented while 56% is mature, slightly behind the 5-year Ave. Harvest at 11% matches the 5-year Ave. however below the YA pace of 13%. Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his US corn yield 2 bpa to 182 with production at 16.380 bil. bu. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show the ethanol production range between 298-316 mil. gallons last week, vs. the previous week production at 310 mil. EU corn imports for the 2025/26 MY as of Sept. 21st have reached 3.16 mmt, down 36% YOY.
SOYBEANS
Prices closed mixed in choppy 2 sided trade. Beans were up $.01, meal was $2-$4 lower while oil was 15-25 higher. Spreads were mixed and little changed. Nov-25 beans traded to a fresh 6 week low however failed to seriously challenge the $10.00 level. Next major support is at the Aug. low at $9.81 ¼. Early weakness saw Oct-25 oil fell to a new 3 month low however held support above the 50% Fib. retracement level setting up the late recovery. Oct-25 meal closed near session lows after the EU again delayed activating the deforestation law for a 2nd consecutive year that likely would have helped boost US soybean meal exports. Spot board crush margins slipped another $.05 to $1.47 bu. Overnight weakness was likely spillover from yesterday’s surprise decision in Argentina to suspend their commodity export taxes until the end of October. This action was taken to help stabilize their struggling economy and support their currency following a sharp drop in the peso last week. Indications the US Treasury has pledged “large and forceful” action to assist Argentina in these efforts enabled the soybean complex to recover. Prior to yesterday’s announcement Argentina’s export tax on soybeans was 26% and 24.5% on products. China wasted no time by immediately buying at least 10-15 cargoes of Argentine soybeans for fall delivery. Total volume roughly between 650k and 1 mmt. This is the timeframe US soybeans typically fill Chinese imports and just another blow to the US demand picture. Bulls remain hopeful Pres. Trump’s meeting with Chinese Pres. Xi later this fall could still result in a trade deal, however the window ahead of SA harvest gets shorter every day. Crop ratings slipped 2% to 61% G/E. Overall ratings have fallen 4 consecutive weeks and are now below YA. Updated ratings suggest an average yield at 53.5 bpa and production of 4.294 bil. down 18 mil. from LW and just below the USDA forecast of 4.301 bil. 61% of the crop is shedding leaves. 9% of the crop is harvested matching the 5-year Ave. however below the YA pace of 12%. Dr. Cordonnier lowered his US bean yield .5 bpa to 52 with production at 4.17 bil. bu. EU soybean imports for the 25/26 as of Sept. 21st have reached 2.86 mmt, down 4% YOY. Soybean meal imports at 4.0 mmt are down 3.6%.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.04-$.10 higher across the 3 classes. Chicago was the upside leader however failed to carve out a key reversal day. Same with Dec-25 MIAX after forging a new contract low on early weakness. Spreads also firmed. Rains this week in the southern Midwest and ECB will slow harvest activities however help relieve drought conditions for the winter wheat crop. Spring wheat harvest at 96% matches the 5-year Ave. Winter wheat plantings at 20% are below YA and 5-year Ave. of 23%. Wire services are reporting Algeria likely bought between 450k-500k mt of wheat paying between $259-$261 mt CF for November shipment. This was well above their initial tender for 50k mt. Jordan also reportedly made a purchase in their 60k mt tender paying $266/mt CF for early Nov-25 shipment. SovEcon is reporting Russia’s wheat export price increased another $1 from late last week to $229/mt. EU soft wheat exports as of Sept. 21st at 4.12 mmt are down 33% YOY.
Charts provided by QST.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
