Written Commentary
CORN
A late recovery enable prices to close $.02-$.02 ½ lower. Spreads were steady to slightly firmer. Dec-25 slipped below LW’s low with next support at the 50 day MA at $4.14 ½. The USDA announced the sale of 320k mt of corn (12.6 mil. bu.) to Mexico. Export inspections at 52 mil. bu., were in line with expectations however below the 57 mil. needed to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 137 mil. bu. are up 59% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 19 mil. and Japan – 13 mil. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s were net buyers of nearly 20k contracts reducing their net short position to 80k contracts, the lowest in 4 months. Index funds however were net sellers of 10k contracts. AgRural estimates Brazil’s 1st corn crop plantings have reached 25%, just below the 26% from YA The EU crop monitoring committee lower their EU yield forecast to 6.88 mt per HA, down from 6.93. The USDA’s yield forecast is 6.91 mt per HA.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with beans down $.13-$.15, meal was down $4 while oil was 80-90 points lower. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads were mixed. Nov-25 bean fell to a 6 week low however so held support above $10.00 bu. Next major support is at the Aug. low at $9.81 ¼. Oct-25 oil fell to a 3 month low. Next support is at a 50% Fib. Retracement level at $.48 lb. Oct-25 meal violated support at its 50 day MA however held above the Sept. low at $277. Spot board crush margins slipped $.04 to $1.52 bu. with bean oil PV dipping to 47%. Lack of a trade deal with China, favorable weather in South America combined with Argentina suspending their grain export taxes until the end of October all weighed on commodity valuations. Scattered rains across the Central Midwest this weekend. This week will see continued rains for the S. Midwest and ECB keeping harvest operations at a slow pace. Export inspections at 18 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations and below the 33 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 58 mil. bu. are up 26% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 10%. Biggest taker was Egypt at 5 mil. bu. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s were net buyers of 17k contracts of soybeans, nearly 18k bean oil and just over 3k bean meal. Index funds were moderate buyers of beans and oil, while light sellers in meal. AgRural estimates Brazil’s soybean plantings at 1%.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.03-$.12 lower across the 3 classes today. While Chicago was the weakest, all 3 Dec-25 contracts traded to new contract lows. Spreads in CGO weakened while firming a touch in KC. Chicago Dec-25 premium to Dec-25 corn fell to a new low today, closing under $.90 bu. Support for CGO Dec-25 is at the August low for the week chart at $4.94 ½. Support for spot KC is at $4.80. Scattered to lite precipitation for the S. plains and TX panhandle, better rains for the central plains of KS while completely dry for the northern plains. Export inspections at 31 mil. bu. were well above expectations and above the 16 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 320 mil. bu. are up 13% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. MM’s were net buyers of nearly 6.6k CGO wheat, 1.5k in KC while selling 1.4k in MIAX. IKAR is reporting Russia’s export price for wheat actually rose $3 ton last week to $228/mt. SovEcon estimates Russia will export 4.2 mmt of wheat in Sept. Rising global production forecasts continue to weigh on wheat valuations. Speculative traders continue to remain comfortable staying short.
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