Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.05 higher shaking off early weakness while jumping out to a 6 week high in late trade. With the exception of Sept/Dec spreads weakened. The market continues to draw support from strong demand and growing speculation that the USDA production and yield estimates are too high. Speculative traders bought almost 19k contracts on Friday while the afternoon CFTC-COT report showed them purchasing nearly 34k contracts in the week ended last Tues. As of Friday’s close we estimate the MM short position in corn was down to roughly 85k contracts, which would be the smallest since early May. That position is likely smaller after today’s trade. Export inspections at 55 mil. bu., were in line with expectations bringing YTD inspections to 2.636 bil. bu. up 29% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 25%. This week’s data covers thru Aug. 28th leaving only 3 days left in the 2024/25 MY. Census exports thru the end of June ran 159 mil. bu. over inspections suggesting YTD shipments 2.795 bil. Likely to see final exports very close to the current USDA est. of 2.820 bil. EU 2025/26 corn imports as of Aug. 31st have reached 1.88 mmt, half of the pace from YA. Corn used for the production of ethanol in July-25 at 456 mil. bu. was at the low end of expectations and down 6% from YA. YTD corn usage for the 2024/25 MY has reached 4.978 bil. bu. To reach the USDA forecast of 5.470 bil. bu. usage in Aug-25 needs to reach 492 mil. bu. a record high for the month.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans down $.11-$.13, meal was off $5-$8 while oil rebounded 50-55 points. Spreads were mixed. Nov-25 beans fell below LW’s low however never seriously challenged support at its 100 day MA at $10.29 ½. Oct-25 oil bounced off its 100 day MA at 51.42. Oct-25 meal fell to a 4 week low. Spot board crush margins slipped another $.01 ½ to $1.52 bu. a fresh 2 month low. Friday’s ruling from a Federal appeals court that most of the Trump Administrations use of global tariffs were illegal doesn’t favor the US as trade negotiations with China drag on. Pres. Trump vowed to appeal the ruling to the Supreme Court. US Treasury yields rose on fears the Fed. Govt. would have to refunds billions of tariff funds already collected. Still no purchases of US beans by China as they continue to extend coverage into Nov. from SA sources. Bean oil PV rebounded to 48.5%. Export inspections at 17 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations. YTD inspections at 1.828 bil. up 11.3% from YA vs. the USDA estimate of up 10.6%. With census data running 47 mil. above inspections thru June bringing shipments to 1.875 bil. bu. matching the USDA forecast with 3 days left. Last week MM’s were buyers of nearly 21k contracts of soybeans, 23.5k meal while selling under 1k oil. MM flipped to being net long 21k beans while their short position in meal has dropped to 62k contracts, less than half of its record short position 3 weeks ago. EU 2025/26 soybean imports as of Aug. 31st at 2.29 mmt are down 5.4% from YA. Their meal imports at 3.12 mmt are down 4%. Census crush in July-25 at 205 mil. bu. was below expectations. Cumulative crush thru the first 11 months of the 24/25 MY has reached 2.247 bil. bu. In order to reach the current USDA forecast of 2.430 bil. bu. crush in Aug-25 will need to reach a record 183 mil. bu. up 9.4% from YA. Bean oil stocks were below expectations falling 1% to 1.874 bil. lbs. and are down 6.7% from YA.
WHEAT
Prices were $.05-$.08 lower across the 3 classes today. Spreads firmed in CGO while mixed in KC. New contract low for Dec-25 MIAX wheat while both CGO and KC held above LW’s contract lows. SovEcon is reporting the export price for Russian wheat slipped to $230 mt at the end of last week, down $5 for the week. ABARE raised their Australian production forecast by 10% to 33.8 mmt, look for a similar increase from the USDA next Fri. Export inspections at 29.5 mil. bu. were above expectations. Last week’s inspections were revised up by nearly 3 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 244 mil. bu. are up 14.5% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 6%. Low prices in the US are doing what they are supposed to, attract demand. MM’s remain a healthy short in all 3 classes of wheat, however not pushing the extremes from this past Spring. EU soft wheat exports as of Aug. 31st at 2.57 mmt are off 44% from YA pace.
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