Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.04 lower closing near session lows. Spreads were mixed and little changed. Support for Dec-25 is at the 50 day MA at $4.14. First resistance is at LW’s high of $4.24 ¾. Ethanol production jumped to 325 mil. gallons in the week ended Fri. Sept. 5th, up from 316 mil. the previous week and up 2.3% from YA. Production was the highest in 12 weeks and above expectations. There was 110 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.73 mil. bu. per day. Ethanol stocks ticked up to 22.8 mil. barrels, in line with expectations while below YA inventories at 23.7 mb. Implied gasoline demand fell 6.7% LW to 8.508 tbd, however still slightly above YA. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 35-95 mil. bu. Since 1990 the USDA raised corn yields in August 18 times. Of those years, final yields were below the Aug. forecast 12 times (including the last 6) while above the Aug. forecast 6 times.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly lower with beans down $.05-$.06, meal was $3-$5 lower while oil rebounded closing 50 points higher. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads firmed. Nov-25 beans are back below its 100 day MA, however held support at its 50 day MA at $10.24. Oct-25 oil slipped to a fresh 3 month low before recovering. Overhead resistance is at its 100 day MA at $290.10. Board crush margins bounced $.05 to $1.64 ½ bu. with bean oil PV recovering to 47.2%. Above normal temperatures are forecast for much of the US Midwest over the next 2 weeks. Rains over the next 7 days will be limited to the NW plains. While the dryer pattern will speed up the maturation process and help with early harvest efforts, it’s unfavorable for later developing crops that could still benefit from late season moisture. Bunge in Argentina is finishing loading out 30k mt of meal destined for China. Their first attempt at shipping meal to China earlier this summer didn’t go so well as the cargo was rerouted to Vietnam for “commercial reasons.” Yesterday’s heavy dose of speculative buying in meal and selling in oil was fueled by reports a group of US senators from states with large crude oil refineries submitted a bill that would prevent the Trump Administration from shifting SRE’s to larger oil companies. The bill, titled Protect Consumers from Reallocation Costs Act of 2025 is led by Senators Mike Lee of Utah, John Barrasso, of Wyoming, and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. At stake is nearly 1.4 bil. RINS and roughly 1.1 bil. gallons of biofuel. At midday today wire services reported the EPA is purposing a plan requiring large refineries to cover approximately half of the gallons exempted for the small plants last month. The plan is under review by the Trump Administration and subject to change. A decision is expected by the end of Oct-25. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 15-55 mil. bu. of beans, 100-600k tons of meal and 0-15k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.03-$.05 lower across the 3 classes at midday. Spreads were mixed and little changed. Prices continue to trudge along holding support above its recent lows however with rising production est. in Russia and the S. Hemispere would appear to limit the upside price potential. The Black Sea region is expected to remain in a dryer than normal pattern for another 7-10 days. Rains are needed by this fall to promote winter crop plantings and early development. This AM wire services are reporting Poland shot down a Russian drone in Polish airspace on Wed. Poland’s PM called the incident a large scale provocation and the closest they have been to conflict since WWII however do not feel they are on brink of war. IKAR raised their Russian wheat production forecast 1 mmt to 87 mmt while also raising their export forecast 1 mmt to 44 mmt. SovEcon is forecasting Russian production at 87.2 mmt. In Aug-25 the USDA pegged Russia’s production at 83.5 mmt and exports at 46 mmt. Still no spark to ignite a lasting short cover rally. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range between 10-25 mil. bu.
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