Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended higher on low volume pre-holiday trading. Soybeans and soyoil led the way in the oilseed complex. Some reduced concern after US Sep employment numbers may have triggered some short covering. China lockdown and central China dry weather has slowed China economy. This could lower their import of oilseeds. China hog margins have improved which could increase their soybean needs. Key is how much US soybeans will they need to buy vs USDA total soybean import guess. Some could see eventually, USDA lowering US 2022/23 soybean exports and increasing the carryout. Noon GFS weather model is wetter for E US crop area. Soybean bears could still be in control in futures if macro-economic news remains negative. Some feel a bounce in futures before USDA Sep report could be a chance to sell cash or futures into harvest lows.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. CZ had an inside day on low volume. Open interest is at a new low. For the week, CZ dropped from 6.83 to a low at 6.54 and ended near 6.65. US domestic cash remains high especially to feeders. CZ rallied from a July 21 low near 5.61 on talk of tight global corn supplies and Pro Farmer US corn yield. One new estimate of US corn yield at 173.2 vs USDA 175.4. Some feel US corn yield will be down 4 bpa but from 177 or from 181 trend. Prices have now dopped on lower Ukraine corn export price. Ukraine export prices are near $260 vs US $318. China and S Korea have bought Ukraine corn. Key is performance with challenging logistics, high freight and record low cash corn prices to farmers slowing grain movement from farm to ports. France corn crop rating dropped again with 1 pct of crop harvest. Summer drought could lower the crop 40 pct from normal. Key to US export prices is actual Ukraine export pace and US farmer cash selling pace especially at harvest. Corn bears still look for CZ to make harvest lows near 6.00 and then try to stage a rally post-harvest to keep pipeline full until 2023 South America crop is known and harvested. Macro-economics as US Fed raises rated also key as impact on US Dollar price and Crude oil price and eventually corn prices .
WHEAT
metals. WZ had and inside day on low volume. Open interest is back to season lows. US farmer is done selling, funds ae now buying and end users are buying hand to mouth. WZ dropped this week from 8.42 to 7.91 and ended today near 8.11. The big news this past week was fact that Russia continued to drop export prices to try to get export business to bring down the record crop supplies. Egypt bought Russia whet near $300 versus US SRW near $336 and EU wheat near $347. Talk of higher than expected US and Canada HRS harvest yields offered resistance to MWZ. Negative World macro economics may be slowing World food demand despite fact World food prices have dropped 5 straight months. UN August food index was 138.0 down from 140.7 in July and 159.7 in March.
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