Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures dropped this week from a high near 14.09 to a low near 13.69. Some feel that late season rains could help US yield. On Thursday, GFS weather model suggested good rains across the Midwest in the second week of the forecast. Today the GFS suggest 50 pct coverage of .30-1.00 inch of rain favoring the east. EU weather model suggest 35 pct coverage of .25-.75 inches again favoring the east. US soybean export commit is down 24 pct from last year and the lowest in 4 seasons. Brazil north and central weather is dry as farmers start planting the 2024 crop. USDA announced another 132 mt of soybeans sold to China. China 5 largest Banks cut their interest rates to help support their economy. This could help China economy and commodity imports. EIA data suggested that US renewable diesel production capacity has doubled versus last year. US Jan -June US biodiesel feedstocks were near 6.7 mmt vs 5.1 last year, Soyoil 2.7 vs 2.2. Used waste 1.6 vs 1.2 and canola .7 vs .2.
CORN
Corn futures dropped this week from a high near 4.97 to a low near 4.77. Managed funds continue to add to net short going into US harvest. Record Brazil corn exports continue to reduce demand for US exports. Hot and dry US Midwest weather has not attracted new speculative buying. Some fear the US 2023/24 corn demand will not increase from 2023/24 and could suggest a yield near 170 would not be bullish. US new crop export commit is running 5 pct below last year. Brazil could see lower planted acres due to lower projected farm income and higher cost. Matif corn is near 2 week low and weekly close could be the lowest since that start of the Ukraine war. Low US Mississippi river and Panama canal river levels could slow grain movement.
WHEAT
Chicago wheat futures dropped this week from a high near 6.28 to a low near 5.96. Pick up in north hemisphere harvest offered resistance. There was talk that Russia wheat crop could exceed 90 mmt and exports could be a new record of 50 mmt vs 46 last year. US south plains weather remains mostly dry for planting of the 2024 winter wheat crop. Early in the week weather forecast suggested rains for NE, KS and MO. Today the rains were forecasted only in MO. US wheat export commit is down 23 percent from last year. USDA est World wheat crop near 793 mmr vs 790 last year. Exports are estimated near 209 mmt vs 218 last year. This leaves a carryout of 265 mmt versus 268 last year. US exports are estimated at 19 mmt or only 9 pct.
See more market commentary here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
