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Ag Market View for October 11.24

CORN

US production rose 17 mil. bu. to 15.203 bil. roughly 50 mil. above expectations.  The record yield was extended to 183.6 bpa.  Harvested acres were left unchanged at 82.71 mil.  Notable yield changes were IN down 8 bpa, ND down 2, and OH down 4.  IA was up 2 bpa, KS up 7, and MO up 4.  Old crop demand was massaged to get 2023/24 ending stocks down to 1.760 bil. as outlined in the Sept. 30th report.  The only change to new crop demand was a 25 mil. bu. increase to export to 2.325 bil. leaving 2024/25 ending stocks at 1.999 bil., slightly above expectations.  Global stocks were down nearly 2 mmt to 306.5 mmt, in line with expectations.  Ukraine’s production was cut 1 mmt to 26.2 mmt however the EU was left unchanged at 59 mmt.  Dec-24 corn fell to fresh lows for the month with next support at $4.07 ½. 

SOYBEANS

US production slipped 4 mil. bu. to 4.582 bil. in line with expectations.  The average yield was cut .1 bpa however remains a record high at 53.1 bpa.  Harvested acres were left unchanged at 86.271 mil.  Notable yield changes were IN and OH down 3 bpa while MN and WI were down 1 bpa.  IL was up 2 bpa and IA up 1 bpa.  Old crop demand was massaged to get 2023/24 ending stocks down to 342 mil. bu. as outlined in the Sept. 30th report.  Very minor changes to new crop demand resulted in 2024/25 ending stocks holding steady at 550 mil. bu.  also in line with expectations.  Global stocks were virtually unchanged at 134.65 mmt.  Nov-24 beans violated support at the 50 day MA however held above $10.00 bu.  As US harvest begins to wind down the markets attention will gradually shift more towards SA weather and macro events, including the election less than 4 weeks away.   

WHEAT

US ending stocks dropped 16 mil. bu. to 812 mil., a touch below expectations as feed and residual use rose 10 mil. bu.  The USDA left their export forecast unchanged for now at 825 mil. bu.  Global production was cut 2 mmt to 794 mmt however world stocks rose .5 mmt to 257.7 mmt, slightly above expectations.  EU and Russian production were both cut 1 mmt to 123 and 82 mmt respectively.  This was partially offset by a .6 mmt increase to Ukraine’s production to 22.9 mmt.  No change to Australian production as that was left at 32 mmt.  Prices were able to recover off session lows into the close as Russia’s Ag. Ministry urged major exporters to not breach a $250/mt FOB floor price for international tenders.  

 

 

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