Written Commentary
Price action following the USDA data was a bit disappointing, particularly for soybeans. Jan-25 beans were not able to hold trade near its 100 day MA resistance at $10.41. Dec-24 oil did trade to a 7 month high above $.49 lb., however wasn’t able to hold that strength into the close as spreads weakened. Dec-24 corn rejected trade over its Oct-24 high at $4.34 ¼. Biggest surprise to me in today’s data was the decision by the USDA to hold corn demand unchanged despite the huge export commitments to date. I’d look for higher usage and lower stocks in subsequent reports. Also surprising to see soybean crush lowered and no changes to the soybean oil usage figures despite the massive export sales to date. The favorable weather outlook for South America is the primary reason for the pullback from the highs made shortly after the release of today’s data. Wheat will likely continue to be a follower. Without corn tugging it higher wheat prices pulled back to the midpoint or lower end of their recent ranges for all 3 classes.
CORN
- Production cut 60 mil. bu. to 15.143 bil. slightly below expectations. Yield still a record at 183.1 bpa, down from 183.8 last month
- Ending stocks at 1.938 bil. bu. in line with expectations. No changes to usage despite strong demand so far
- Global stocks at 304 mmt slightly below expectations. No changes to South American production
SOYBEANS
- Production cut 121 mil. bu. to 4.461 bil. almost 100 mil. bu. below expectations. Yields cut to 51.7 bpa, down from 53.1 last month.
- Ending stocks at 470 mil. bu. roughly 60 mil. bu. below expectations. Usage cut 41 mil. bu. with exports down 25 mil., crush down 15 mil.
- Global stocks at just under 132 mmt were below the range of guesses. No changes to SA production
- Crush margins set back $.01 to $1.71 ¼ with bean oil PV new 15 month high at 45.2%.
WHEAT
- Ending stocks at 815 mil. bu. slightly above the 812 mil. last month, in line with expectations
- Global stocks steady at 257.6 mmt, slightly above expectations
- Kazakhstan production rose 2 mmt to 18 mmt however their exports cut .5 mmt.
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