Written Commentary
CORN
Prices finished $.02-$.03 higher in 2 sided trade. Spreads continue to firm with Dec-24/Mch-25 trading up to $.09 ¼, a 15 month high. Dec-24 seems to be carving out a tight trading range between the November high at $4.34 ¾ and its 50 day MA support at $4.17 ½. Elevated tensions in the Black Sea region continue to provide support to feed grains. Ethanol production slipped to 1,110 tbd, or 326 mil. gallons, down from 327 mil. the previous week however still up 8.5% from YA. Production was above expectations and the 2nd highest ever, only below LW’s record production. There was nearly 112 mil. bu. of corn used, or 15.9 mil. bu. per day, well above the 14.86 mbd needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.450 bil. If LW’s pace held over the last 41 weeks of the MY corn usage would reach 5.763 bil. bu. Ethanol stocks rose to a 7 week high to 22.6 mil. barrels, above the 21.7 mb from YA. Implied gas usage LW plunged 10.3% to 8.419 mbd, however was down less than 1% YOY. Algeria reportedly bought an undisclosed amount of SA feed grade corn. They had been tendering for 240k mt. Export sales tomorrow are expected in a range from 40-80 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex finished mixed in choppy 2 sided trade. Beans were down $.08-$.09, meal was $1 higher while oil plunged $.01 ½ lb. Nearby bean spreads firmed up with Jan-25/Mch-25 closing at $.08 ¾, a 4 month high. Oil spreads weakened while meal spreads were mixed. Jan-25 beans briefly dipped below LW’s low, however held above this month’s low at $9.82. Resistance is at the 50 day MA, currently $10.21 ¼. Dec-24 meal continues to hover just above its contract low of $285.30 with long term support at the Aug-2020 low near $280 ton. Bean oil broke down to a new low for the month as speculators lighten up on their long positions. Next support for Dec-24 is the 100 day MA at 42.86. Talk of China offering BO for export into SE Asian countries also contributed to the price weakness. Spot board crush margins fell another $.07 to $1.22 ½ bu. a 5 month low. Bean oil PV fell to 42.8%, a 4 week low. Dry areas in central Argentina are expected to see a healthy dose of rain the first half of next week. Recent dryness in southern growing areas of Brazil have started to receive beneficial rain. A good mix of rain and sunshine is expected for most areas of Brazil into early December. An area of possible concern is in Sao Paulo and N. Parana where moisture is expected to be lite. The USDA announced the sale of 226.2k mt (8.3 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer and 202k mt (7.4 mil. bu.) to China. Chinese customs data showed they imported 541.4k mt of soybeans from the US in Oct-24. While double what they imported from the US in Oct-23, they were still a tenth of the 5.53 mmt they imported from Brazil, and less than half of the 1.36 mmt brought in from Argentina. In the first 10 months of 2024 imports for the US have reached 15.1 mmt, down 13% from YA, while imports from Brazil at 67.8 mmt are up 13.6%. At midday Brazil’s Ag. Ministry announced they have struck a deal with China to open markets to sorghum, fishmeal, sesame and other Ag. products. Export sales tomorrow are expect to range from 35-55 mil. bu. of beans, 5-25k tons of oil, and 200-450k tons of meal.
WHEAT
Prices finished $.02-$.05 higher across all 3 classes today. KC and MGEX traded above yesterday’s high with next resistance at the 100 day MA’s of $5.76 and $6.12 ¾ respectively. After passing on yesterday’s tender, Jordan is seeking 120k mt of wheat in a new tender that expires Nov. 26th. Algeria has reportedly bought 160k-180k mt of durum wheat between $348-$360/mt CF, depending on the vessel size. The wheat is for Jan/Feb shipment with Canada, the US or Australia likely the country of origin. Wire services are reporting Russian farmers will likely start planting less wheat following this year’s heavy losses. Despite tight stocks among global wheat exporters production from southern hemisphere exporters, where harvest is ongoing, is expected to be up 18% from YA which seems to be keeping a lid on rally attempts. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range between 10-22 mil. bu.
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