Written Commentary
CORN
Prices turned $.01-$.02 lower as spreads also weakened a touch. Dec-24/Mch-25 reached its highest level in a year at $.09 ¾ before widening back out to $.10 1/2. Next resistance for Dec-24 made is the Nov-24 high at $4.34 ¾. Look for addition easing of drought conditions as the current systems pushes thru over the next 24-48 hours. Much cooler, however seasonally average temperatures will fill in behind the front. EU 24/25 corn imports as of Nov. 17th at 7.6 mmt are up 11.3% over YA. Algeria is seeking 240k mt of SA feed corn for early Dec-24 delivery in a tender that expires today. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry indicates their corn acres will expand by 500k HA in 2025 largely coming from soybeans. ND regulators approved a permit for Summit Carbon Solutions proposed 333 mile pipeline to capture and store CO2 discharged from ethanol plants. They indicate they have obtained voluntary easements on over 81% of the area for the pipeline. They will need a separate storage permit from the ND Industrial Commission. This could be a step in the right direction to lower corn based ethanol’s carbon score in order to qualify for preferential tax breaks in the production of SAF. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production remaining near record highs despite overall margins near their 52 week lows. Production is expected to range between 320-328 mil. gallons, vs. a record high of 327 the previous week.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was lower today with beans down $.08-$.11, meal was $1-$2 lower, while oil was down 60-70. Jan-25 beans failed to hold above $10 into the close. Next support is at the Oct-24 low at $9.77 ¼. Resistance is at the 50 day MA at $10.22. Dec-24 meal rejected a potentially 3rd straight higher close. Next support is at $280 ton, the low from Aug-2020. Dec-24 oil rejected trade above $.46 lb. however held support above LW’s low at 44.33. Spot board crush margins were steady at $1.29 ½ bu. with bean oil PV slipping to 43.7%. Area’s in central Argentina and southern Brazil that missed out on recent rain events are forecast to see widespread moisture by the end of November keeping crop prospects high. Brazil’s ABIOVE is forecasting 24/25 soybean production at 167.7 mmt, just below the USDA forecast of 169 mmt. Their export and crush forecasts at 104 mmt and 57 mmt are compare to the USDA forecasts of 105.5 and 54 mmt respectively. The Malaysia’s Govt. will raise their crude palm oil tax to 10% from 8% in December. EU 24/25 soybean imports as of Nov. 17th at 4.75 mmt are up 9% from YA. Their meal imports at 7.08 mmt are up 23%.
WHEAT
Prices were $.02-$.03 higher across all 3 classes today closing at about the midpoint of the day’s range. Markets added “War Premium” as tensions in the Black Sea region remain elevated. Ukraine used a long range US missile to strike an ammunition storage facility in Russia’s Bryansk region overnight. The Biden Administrations decision over the weekend to allow Ukraine to use US missiles to strike targets within Russia will likely be viewed by Russia as an attack by NATO countries. Moscow’s response to the escalation is not yet clear. Next resistance for Dec-24 Chicago is at the 100 day MA, currently $5.70 ½. Similar story for KC and MGEX at $5.76 ½ and $6.13 ¼ respectively. US winter wheat plantings advanced 3% to 94% matching YA while just behind the 5-year Ave. of 96%. Emergence has reached 84% matching the 5-year Ave. 49% of the crop is rated G/E, up 5% from last week and slightly better than expectations. Ratings are at their best level in 5 years. 15% of the crop is poor/VP, down from 18% LW and 17% YA. Jordan reportedly passed on their recent 120k mt tender. EU 24/25 soft wheat exports at 8.8 mmt are down 30.6% from YA.
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