Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was higher across the board. Soybeans were $.20 – $.34 higher, meal was $2 – $3 higher, while oil was 125– 135 higher, likely on a short covering surge. The overnight low in July-23 soybean matched last week’s low at $13.04 ¾, holding just above last summer’s low of $12.99. Today’s rally in Nov-23 soybeans stopped just shy of $12. July-23 meal made a new 6 month low before rebounding. The USDA did announce the sale of 225k of old crop meal to the Philippines. Export inspections at only 6 mil. bu. were below expectations and below the 16 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast. YTD inspections at 1.771 bil. are down 2% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 7%. My guess is the current USDA export forecast is 10 – 25 mil. bu. too high.
CORN
Prices were up $.08 – $.16, rebounding from last week’s steep losses. Little to no rain is forecast this week for much of the central and eastern Midwest. While this should enable plantings to nearly wrap up by the end of May, it will also generate increased drought concerns heading into the growing season if moisture doesn’t return by early June. The best rains this week are once again forecast for the Southern plains. Much of the nation’s midsection has received less than 50% of their normal rain in the past 30 days. July-23 was able to rebound back to the midpoint of this month’s trading range. Resistance above the market is at the May-23 high of $6.00, followed by the 50 day MA, currently $6.07 ¾. Dec-23 corn wasn’t able to penetrate Friday’s high of $5.10 ¾. Export inspections at 52 mil. bu. were above expectations and above the 47 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 1.775 bil. YTD inspections at 1.078 bil. are down 33% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 28%. Roughly 12.5 mil. bu. were destined for China.
WHEAT
Prices firmed up late enabling all 3 classes to finish with modest gains. Chicago and KC were both $.01 – $.03 higher, with MGEX up $.05 – $.06. While Chicago July-23 made a new low for move, it held support at $5.95 ½, the May-23 low on the weekly chart. KC July-23 stopped just shy of its 50 and 100 day MA resistance. Export inspections at 15 mil. bu. were above expectations and in line with the weekly total needed to reach the USDA export forecast of 775 mil. bu. SovEcon est. Russia exported 1.1 mmt of wheat last week, extending sales for the month to 3.8 mmt, well above the 1.2 mmt shipped YA. IKAR noted that Russian export prices for June are at $242/mt down $6 from the previous week. EU soft wheat yields are projected at 6.0 mt/ha, up from 5.96 the previous month, according to the EU crop monitor report. Despite the recent 60 day extension of the BSGI, Ukraine claims Russian inspectors continue to hold up inbound vessels to Ukraine’s port of Pivdennyi. Currently 26 vessels await access to Ukraine’s largest port.
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