Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.05 higher today led by old crop, however held within yesterday’s range. For the week prices were little changed. Spreads were firmer. May-25 closed above its 100 day MA at $4.63 1/2. In the US temperatures will gradually build to much above normal readings by early next week across a vast majority of the Midwest. Heaviest precipitation over the next 7 day will be in the SE. Lite amounts for the ECB, with even lighter totals in the WCB and plain states. The Ave. trade guess is for a 25 mil. bu. decline in stocks. The BAGE reports Argentine harvest has advanced only 1.3% LW to 6.7%. The UN reports the FAO Food Price Index rose 1.6% in January to 127.1 and is up 8.2% from Feb-24. Brazil’s Ag. Ministry reports their Feb-25 exports at 1.4 mmt down from 1.7 mmt in Feb-24. Mexico remains by far the largest importer of US corn. Commitments for 24/25 at just over 700 mil. bu. with 400 mil. shipped leaving 300 mil. outstanding. There are 211 mil. bu. of outstanding sales to unknown buyers, a 4 year high.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the soybean complex today with beans ranging from down $.02 to up $.05. Meal was also mixed and within $1 of unchanged. Bean oil was 25-30 points higher. Spreads were weaker across the complex. May-25 beans spent much of the day consolidating between $10.25 and its 100 day MA at $10.29. Inside trade for May-25 meal with overhead resistance at its 100 day MA at $307.10. May-25 oil likely drew support from higher energy prices and a 3% surge in Malaysian PO prices overnight. After a couple weeks of heavy rains across central and southern Argentina, condition will turn dryer by early next week as rains shift north. Week 2 of the outlook shows better coverage of meaningful rain in these northern growing areas providing some relief from drought stress, however probably not soon enough to maintain trendline yields. Dry conditions across EC and NE Brazil will likely hold for another week, with mostly favorable conditions elsewhere. Overnight Chinese customs data showed their combined Jan/Feb soybean imports at 13.6 mmt were up 4.4% from YA. The jump likely a result of front loading ahead of the expected trade showdown with the US. Brazilian soybean basis levels continue to firm on anticipation of a greater share of Chinese demand shifting away from the US. Spot FOB prices between US and Brazilian soybeans are down to $.15 bu. for April offers, down from over $1.00 bu. in late Jan-25. Brazil’s Ag. Ministry reports their Feb-25 soybean exports at 6.4 mmt down from 6.6 mmt in Feb-24. The BAGE showed bean conditions improved 5% LW to 29% G/E. 27% of the crop is rated poor/VP down 6% from the previous week.
WHEAT
Prices were $.02-$.03 lower across the 3 classes today and only modest losses for the week. Fresh news was limited. Pres. Trump has threatened additional banking sanctions and tariffs on Russia following their latest round of missile assaults on Ukraine. He went on to state on Truth Social that Russia and Ukraine need to sit down at the negotiating table and arrive at a peace agreement before it is “too late”. Japan’s Ag. Ministry bought just over 94k mt of Aussie, Canadian and US milling wheat for June-25 shipment. This included 18.6 mt of US white and 17.3 mt of US HRW. Despite healthy precipitation this week across the US Midwest key growing areas in W. KS and the Northern plains largely missed out.
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