Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.09 higher today, rejecting early weakness. Spreads were also firmer. May-25 surged to a new high for the week before backing up, however held above the 100 day MA at today’s close. A lower US $$$ combined comments on Truth Social from Pres. Trump that tariffs on imports from Mexico that fall under the USMCA agreement will be delayed until April 2nd. A phone conversation between Trump and Mexico Pres. Claudia Sheinbaum was deemed constructive as they work towards curbing the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl into the US. Export sales at 38 mil. bu. (36 mil. – 24/25 MY, 2 – 25/26) were in line with expectations. Old crop sales at 1.951 bil. are up 26% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 7%. Current commitments represent 80% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 73%. Noted buyers were Mexico and Japan with 10 mil. bu. each. Total commitments to Mexico sit at a record 705 mil. while shipments have reached 405 mil. leaving 300 mil. outstanding. Corn exports at 243 mil. bu. were up 43% from YA and roughly 9 mil. above the weekly inspections data. In order to reach the current USDA export forecast of 2.450 bil. bu. sales Feb thru Aug will need to reach 1.480 bil. vs. 1.558 bil. YA.
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex today with beans up $.11-$.16 led by old crop, meal jumped $4-$5 while oil was 15-20 higher. Spreads were also higher across the complex. May-25 beans surged to a fresh weekly high before pulling back and closing just below its 100 day MA. Spot FOB prices between US and Brazilian soybeans continue to narrow, down to $.25 bu. for April offers, down from over $1.00 bu. in late Jan-25. May-25 oil held just above $.43 lb. May-25 meal surged to a 3 week high before finding resistance at its 100 day MA at $307.30. Board crush margins basis May-25 contracts slipped $.02 to $1.18 ½ while bean oil PV fell to a fresh 2 month low at 41.4%. Conditions across most of Brazil will remain favorable thru mid-March. Net drying will still occur in the EC and NE crop areas, and perhaps RGDS in the deep south. Soybean exports at 13 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.631 bil. are up 13% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%. Still thinking exports are on hold at 1.825 bil. bu. Outstanding sales to China/unknown slipped to 151 mil. vs 164 mil. LW. Soybean meal sales at 237k tons were in line with expectations. YTD commitments are up 12.5% from YA, vs. USDA up 8%. Soybean oil sales at 55k mt (121 mil. lbs.) were above expectations. YTD commitments at 1.684 bil. lbs. represent 105% of the USDA forecast. . Bean sales in Jan-25 at 191.5 mil. bu. were down 13% from YA however roughly 17 mil. above the weekly inspections data. This was the lowest January sales figure in 6 years.
WHEAT
Prices held gains of $.05-$.08 across the 3 classes today while remaining within this week’s range. Today’s US drought monitor showed a bump up in drought readings across key agricultural areas, however this will likely reverse next week following this week’s widespread precipitation. A dryer than normal trend will continue for the Northern plains. Exports at 15 mil. bu. (12 mil. – 24/25 MY, 3- 25/26) were in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 746 mil. bu. are up 10% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 20%. Shipments are up 19%. By class commitments vs. the USDA forecast are HRW up 50% vs. USDA up 57%, SRW down 34% vs. down 21%, HRS up 5% vs. up 15% and white up 43% vs. up 45%. No change in drought readings across Spring wheat or durum acres.
Charts provided by QST.
>>See more market commentary here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
