Written Commentary
Grains ended lower. US stocks were lower. US Dollar was lower. Crude was lower. Gold was higher. All markets reacting to US tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China and their retaliation.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower and near 4.52. Trade watching Trump tariffs and impact of US corn export to Mexico. CK has dropped 65 cents from Feb 19 high. Spreads continue to widen. Much of the selling is due to better South America weather and USDA est US 2025 corn acres and carryout higher than 2024. There has also been a risk off due to concern US and Global economy may slow. US farmers has been a good seller of 2024 corn with some est they have sold as much as 80-85 pct of last years supply. They have not sold much of the 2025 crop. Some feel futures have traded most of the bearish tariff news for now. S&P Global increased Brazil corn crop 2 mmt
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended lower with SH near 9.88 and SK near 10.01. Trade watching Trump tariffs and impact of US soybean exports to China. China announced retaliation against US Ag goods. Soyoil is lower and near 43 cents on concern Trump administration may not support biofuels. USDA announced 20mt US soyoil to unknown. Soymeal prices have also dropped $38 from season highs and is testing Dec 19 low. US crush may be too high for forecasted product demand. US farmers has been a good seller of 2024 soybean with some est they have sold as much as 80- 85 pct of last years supply. They have not sold much of the 2025 crop. Some feel futures have traded most of the bearish tariff news for now.
WHEAT
Wheat futures remain a follower to lower commodity prices. WH traded below 5.37 and making new lows. WK has loss 90 cents from mid February high due to lower Russia prices and lower World wheat import demand. Trade should begin to watch US plains and Russia dry weather pattern. USDA announced US white wheat sales to S Korea. S&P Global increased Australia wheat crop 2.2 mmt, dropped Russia crop .9 mmt and EU crop down .7 mmt. They increased EU 2025 wheat crop to 137.0 mmt vs 120.1 in 2024.
Charts provided by QST.
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