Written Commentary
Grains ended lower. US stocks were lower. US Dollar was sharply lower. Crude was lower. Gold was higher. All markets on edge in front of US tariffs against Canada and Mexico and both countries retaliation.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower and near 4.56. Corn futures are becoming oversold. Trade watching Trump tariffs and impact of US corn export to Mexico. Weekly US corn exports were 53 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,073 mil bu vs 814.8 last year. USDA goal is 2,450 vs 2,292 ly. CK has dropped 64 cents from Feb 19 high. Much of the selling is due to better South America weather and USDA est higher US 2025 corn acres and carryout than 2024. There has also been a risk off due to concern US and Global economy may slow.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended lower and near 10.11. Soybean futures are down 84 cents from Feb 5 high and is oversold. Trade watching Trump tariffs and impact of US soybean exports to China. China can resource soybeans from South America and said they will retaliate against US Ag goods. Talk of rains next week in C Argentina could offer resistance to futures. Soyoil has dropped on concern Trump administration may not support biofuels. Some support could come from Canada tariffs on canola. US Jan crush is est at 211.1 mil bu vs 194.8 ly. End of Jan US soyoil stocks are est at 1,761 mil lbs vs 2,029 ly. Weekly US soybean exports were 25 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,381 mil bu vs 1,260 last year. USDA goal is 1,825 vs 1,695 ly.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.47. KWH is near 5.61. KWH is near 5.91. WK has loss 74 cents from mid February high due to lower Russia prices and lower World wheat import demand. Weekly US wheat exports were 14 mil bu. Season to date exports are 574 mil bu vs 476 last year. USDA goal is 850 vs 707 ly. Trade should begin to watch US plains and Russia dry weather pattern. US HRW crops are made or loss in April.
Charts provided by QST.
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