Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were up less than a penny across the board in 2 sided trade. Spreads were little changed. of unchanged in 2 sided trade. Old crop futures are the leader to the upside with spreads rebounding. July-25 did close back above its 100 day MA. News that the Trump Administration may take a more targeted approach to the reciprocal tariffs beginning April 2nd has given US equity markets a boost. 2nd corn crop prospects in Brazil remain mostly favorable. Export inspections at 58 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD inspections at 1.270 bil. are up 32% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 7%. Largest takers were Mexico – 18 mil., Japan – 16 mil. while S. Korea and Colombia took just over 5 mil. each. Still lean towards higher exports despite no change from the USDA this month. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s were net sellers of just over 39k contracts, reducing their long position to 107k, the smallest since Dec-24. Index funds were also net sellers in corn for the 4th consecutive week. AgRural raised their total Brazilian production forecast .6 mmt to 121.8 mmt, still well below the current USDA est. of 126 mmt. Trade this week will likely be tempered ahead of next Monday’s quarterly stocks and acreage report on Monday.
SOYBEANS
Prices are mixed and very little changed today with beans down $.01-$.02 ½, meal was $2-$3 lower, while oil was up 10-15 points. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads were little changed. May-25 beans rejected trade below LW’s low while remaining confined to a $10-$10.25 range. May-25 oil also rejected trade below LW’s low as it consolidates near the midpoint of its $.41-$.43 trading range. Inside trade for spot meal. Spot board crush margins slipped $.02 to $1.11 bu. while bean oil PV rebounded to 41.5%. US weather saw heavy rains across the southern/central Midwest this weekend along with a mix of snow/rain across the Great Lakes region. 7 day precipitation forecasts favor E. TX along with the central and ECB. Coverage in the WCB will be more scattered with the least amount of coverage in the SW and northern plains. Export inspections at 30 mil. bu. were above trade expectations and well above the 8 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 1.825 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.467 bil. are up 9% from YA vs. USDA forecast of up 8%. China took just over 15 mil. No surprise the USDA held exports steady this month. Last week MM’s sold nearly 6,500 soybeans extending their short position to 22k, they sold 13.8k oil contracts extending their short position to 27.6k while buying 11k meal, cutting that short position to 61k. AgRural cut their Brazilian production forecast 2.3 mmt to 165.9 mmt, below the USDA est. of 169 mmt. Drought conditions in the south drove the production cut with RGDS down 3 mmt to 15 mmt. Harvest progress advanced 7% to 77% complete, above YA progress at 69%.
WHEAT
Prices were $.09-$.13 lower across all 3 classes today. May-25 KC violated support at its 100 day MA before closing right at it. May-25 CGO traded to a 2 week low. Extended forecast do provide improved chances for beneficial rain in the Black Sea region for week 2 of the outlook. Temperatures across the Southern plains will be above to much above normal all week. Export inspections at 18 mil. bu. were also above expectations however below the 21 mil. needed per week to reach the revised USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 619 mil. are up 18% from YA, in line with the USDA forecast. Last week MM’s were net buyers of 3k MGEX futures, 2k KC while selling just over 3,200 in CGO. MM’s remain net short wheat for 2 ½ years and counting. IKAR raised their 2025 Russian wheat production forecast 1.5 mmt to 82.5 mmt. Russia’s Ag. Ministry cut their wheat export duty 23% to 1,847 rubles/mt for the period from Mch 26th thru April 1st.
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