Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were steady to $.02 lower today with old crop the downside leader. Spreads weakened as speculative traders continue to shed length in the corn market. After selling roughly 6k contracts yesterday we’ve got their long position down to about 125k contracts, which would be the smallest in 3 ½ months. Mato Grosso and SC growing areas of Brazil will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next few weeks, beneficial for the developing 2nd corn crop. Demand for US corn remains strong with export inspections running 33% over YA, vs. the USDA export forecast of up only 7%. Corn planting in TX advanced 8% LW to 32%. Harvest of the 1st crop in Brazil is moving along rather quickly at 72%, up from 54% the previous week. Corn demand for ethanol production in Brazil is expected to continue to rise as they move to raise the amount of ethanol blended with gasoline to 30%, up from 27.5%. This increase is expected to raise ethanol consumption by 1.3 bil. liters annually while increasing corn demand over 2.5 mmt a year. EU corn imports at 14.82 mmt as of Mch 16th are up 8.7% over YA. S&P Global raised their 2025 US corn acreage forecast 800k to 94.3 mil., up 3.7 mil. from YA and now just above the USDA Outlook est. of 94 mil.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans down $.02-$.04, meal was $3-$4 lower while oil was up 45 points. Spreads are little changed in beans and oil and weaker in meal. Much of Argentina thru southern Brazil will remain dry thru the coming weekend, beneficial for harvest progress in Argentina. Rains are forecast to return to these regions early thru the middle of next week. Western and southern growing areas of Argentina will likely receive timely rains by the weekend. Inside trade for May-25 beans with support at LW’s low at $9.94. Support for May-25 meal is at LW low at $298.60. May-25 oil had its 3rd consecutive higher close, trading in a sell the rumor buy the fact manner with yesterday’s confirmation of a huge slowdown in domestic usage with the higher than expected NOPA stocks despite the lower than expected crush. Spot board crush margins slipped $.02 today to $1.15 bu. with bean oil PV improving to 41.5%. EU soybean imports as of Mch. 16th have reached 9.6 mmt, up 7% from YA. Their meal imports are up 27% to 13.36 mmt. S&P Global held their 2025 soybean acreage forecast steady at 83.3 mil. down 3.8 mil. from YA and below the USDA Feb. Outlook est. at 84 mil. acres. If realized this would be the lowest acreage figure in 6 years.
WHEAT
Prices closed mixed from down $.03 in CGO to up a penny in KC. Inside trade for May-25 CGO as it was not able to hold early strength after failing to trade above yesterday’s high. Fresh 4 week high for May-25 KC with next resistance at the Feb. high at $6.42 ½. A mix of rain/snow is expected for W. KS, however overall moisture is not expected to be heavy while high winds and blowing dust will likely threaten wheat conditions. Winter wheat ratings held steady in TX and CO at 28% and 46% G/E respectively. Ratings fell 4% in KS to 48% while CO dropped 7% to 60% G/E. EU soft wheat exports for the 2024/25 MY as of Mch. 16th at 14.92 mmt is down 35% over YA. Jordan reportedly passed on making a purchase with their 120k mt tender for milling wheat. Applying trendline yields to the USDA winter wheat acreage forecast in Jan-25 would result in winter wheat production at roughly 1.373 bil. bu. the highest in 9 years.
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