Written Commentary
CORN
Corn: Prices were $.01-$.07 lower today with old crop leading the declines. Spreads were also weaker. Despite the weakness May-25 held support at this week’s low. Prices seemed to shrug off the announced sale of 208.6k mt (8.6 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer, likely S. Korea. Despite their supportive comments on crop development the BAGE held their Argentine production forecast steady at 49 mmt, well above est. from their counterparts at the RGE at 44.5 mmt. Their corn harvest advanced less than 2% to 8% complete, however is still above YA pace of 3%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed and little changed today with beans up $.05-$.06, meal was steady to $1 lower while oil was up 25-30 points. Spreads are also mixed. Inside trade all around. May-25 beans continue to hold above $10. Next resistance at the 100 day MA at $10.28 ¼. Early weakness in meal likely a result of striking oilseed workers in Argentina returning to their jobs. The rebound in May-25 was once again capped near its 100 day MA at $306.50. With May-25 oil not able to trade above yesterday’s high despite another announced sale of 20k mt of oil to an unknown buyer suggests we’ll see additional shifts of bean oil usage for biofuel production to exports. Spot board crush margins slumped $.04 ½ to $1.14 ½ bu. while bean oil PV rebounded to 40.5%. NOPA crush on Monday is expected to show NOPA members processed 185.2 mil. bu. in Feb-25. If realized this would be below the 200.4 mil. crushed in Jan-25 and below the 186.2 mil. in Feb-24. Oil stocks held by NOPA members is expected to rise to 1.386 bil. lbs. up from 1.274 bil. at the end of Jan-25 however well below the 1.69 bil. and the end of Feb-24. The BAGE held their Argentine production forecast steady at 49.6 mmt, above the est. from their counterpart at the RGE of 46.5 mmt and just above the USDA est. of 49 mmt. Crop ratings did improve 1% to 74% G/E. Weather in Argentina shows a return to a hot/dry pattern which is expected to aid harvest activities. Net drying in the southernmost state of RGDS is not expected to see widespread relief over the next few weeks. While this may stress later developing crops, it will aid in harvest progress for early soybeans where progress is still in the single digits. Safras & Mercado lowered their Brazilian production forecast 2.4 mmt to 172.45 mmt, getting closer to the USDA est. of 169 mmt. With yesterday’s Conab forecast rising to 167.4 mmt to gap between the highest and lowest estimates are much narrower than in recent years.
WHEAT
Prices finished $.01-$.05 lower across the 3 classes in 2 sided trade. Inside trade for CGO and MGEX futures. May-25 KC jumped out to a fresh high for the month before pulling back to its 50 day MA support at $5.84 ½. Still no meaningful rain for the S. Plains for the next week to 10 days. Very high winds threaten to deplete soil moisture across the plains states. Fresh news was limited with no cease fire agreement yet in the Ukraine/Russian war. Limited rains are forecast for Southern Russia and the Black Sea region ahead of this Spring planting season keeping moisture reserves low. Earlier today Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry estimated spring plantings will total 5.7 mil. HA, steady with YA. France’s AgriMer reports soft wheat conditions held steady in the past week at 74% G/E, while durum conditions slipped 1% to 81% G/E.
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