Written Commentary
CORN
CK was down 2 cents and near 4.35. CK has been drifting lower and spreads widening due to concern about demand. Historically, US corn exports tend to peak in early May due to South America competition. There is less talk about lower Brazil supply but C Brazil needs a rain and lower temps. One crop watchers still estimates Brazil corn crop at 112 mmt vs USDA 124. One group lowered Argentina crop to 54 mmt due to recent heavy rains. USDA is 56 mmt. Dalian corn futures continue to slide lower due to increase imports from Ukraine. There remains new concern about Ukraine export pace due to recent attacks on their energy infrastructure. Historically, end of March USDA report could have a volatile price reaction. Corn open interest continue to increase with some crediting increase Index buying
SOYBEANS
SK was down 9 cents and near 12.00. SK is resting above moving average support near 11.92 and then 11.80. Resistance is near recent high at 12.26. Historically end of March USDA report could have a volatile price reaction. Farmers could add to cash sales on a rally. Most feel USDA will estimate US March 1 soybean stocks above last year and 2024 acres also above last year. China soymeal prices continue to slide lower. Their crush margins also are in the red. Brazil soybean export prices are 150 cents below US. One crop watchers still estimates Brazil soybean crop at 145 mmt vs USDA 155. Difference could be USDA has higher acres. Both Malaysia and Dalian palmoil futures continue higher on talk of lower Indonesia export supply and higher India and China import demand. Domestic Indonesia domestic biofuel demand is on the increase, Baltimore bridge collapsed after support column hit by a container ship. Most of the Atlantic port exports are soybeans and soymeal.
WHEAT
WK is lower and near 5.45. There remains little bullish news in the wheat World. Russia continues to offer wheat below other origins. US plains is dry but HRW crop ratings remain above last year. US export shipments remain below pace needed to reach USDA goal. Australia and Matif futures are lower on lower demand. Chicago wheat futures spreads continue to widen. USDA is expected to estimate March 1 stocks above last year. USDA is also expected to estimate US 2024 all wheat acres lower than last year but trend yields and stagnate demand could still increase US 2024/25 carryout. Russia and RF/Grain Flower dispute continues with Russia refusing to allow 400 mt wheat to be exported. Most doubt there will have a lasting price impact since there is an abundant amount of old crop wheat available for export. Importers could slow buying from RF until there is clarity on government actions. RF exported 6 mmt of Russian wheat last year.
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