Written Commentary
CORN
Prices recovered to close only $.01-$.01 ½ lower. While July held support at its Feb-24 low at $4.22 ¼, Dec-24 traded to its lowest level since Sept-21. Heavy rains and isolated areas of flooding in the northwest corn and soybean belt have given way to dryer conditions for much of this week. Much above normal temperatures across the central and eastern corn belt have moderately, at least temporarily, while better than expected rains filled in late in the weekend. Heaviest rains this week are expected in SE IA, eastward across the northern half of IL and into the ECB. Lighter rains across the southern Midwest. Demand news is uneventful as US prices are competitive with Brazil, however slightly above what’s being offered in Argentina. Corn inspections at 44 mil. bu. were in line with expectations, and above the 35 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 2.150 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.639 bil. are up 28% from YA vs, the USDA forecast of up 29%. Mexico and Japan were the biggest takers last week with 18 mil. and 10 mil. respectively.
SOYBEANS
Soybean and meal prices jumped today led by spot July-24 contracts. Beans were $.10-$.15 better, meal was up $6-$11, while oil was down 45-55. Spot July-24 held above last week’s low at $11.55, setting up today’s rebound. Prices briefly traded above LW’s high of $11.79. Outside day higher for Nov-24 beans, next major resistance at $11.73. July-24 meal bounced off its 50 day MA support while also trading above resistance at LW’s high of $372.60. Support for July-24 oil is at this month’s low just above $.43 lb. Longer range maps continue to lean towards above normal temperatures and precipitation for much of the nation’s midsection into early July. The USDA announced the sale of 228k mt of meal to the Philippines for the 2024/25 MY. Spot board crush margins improved another $.04 to $1.23 bu. carving out a fresh 6 month high. Soybean meal PV jumped 1% today to 63.2%. Soybean inspections at 13 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and in line with the weekly amount needed to reach the USDA export forecast of 1.70 bil. YTD inspections at 1.515 bil. are down 16% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. Egypt was the largest taker last week at just over 4 mil. bu.
WHEAT
With the exception of nearby KC contracts wheat was lower across all 3 classes today. Spreads weakened in both Chicago and MGEX. Chicago was $.06-$.09 lower while MGEX was down $.04-$.06. KC was within $.02 of unchanged. Chicago July-24 traded to a 3 month low with next support at its contract low of $5.37 ¾. It’s premium to July-24 corn has fallen $1.33 from its recent high to $1.19 bu., which will likely enable it to work back into more feed rations. July-24 MGEX traded to a fresh contract low and the lowest level in just over 3 years, however did hold above the $6 level. Little to no rain for the southern plains this week while areas of extreme heat are limited to the Southern Plains. Hot and dry conditions are expected across much of Ukraine and western Russia this week. IKAR reports Russian wheat export price at $231/mt, last week down from $234/mt the previous week. SovEcon reports Russia exported 830k mt of week last week, up from 800k mt the previous week. Wheat inspections at 13 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations and just below the 15.5 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 38 mil. bu. are up 38% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 11%.
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