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Ag Market View for June 2.23


The soybean complex was mostly higher with soybeans up $.15 – $.22, soybean oil 140 – 160 higher, while soybean meal was $2 – $4 lower.  July-23 soybeans surged to close above $13.50 for the first time in over 2 weeks.  Nov-23 soybeans remains below resistance at $12.  July-23 oil held below resistance at 49.66.  Census crush in April-23 at 187 mil. bu. was above expectations and a record high for the month.  In the first 8 months of the Sept thru Aug MY cumulative crush has reached 1.494 bil. bu. up .1% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up .7%.  To reach the current USDA usage est. of 2.220 bil. bu. crush May thru Aug. will need to reach a record 726 mil. bu., just above the previous record of 717 mil. in 2020, still doable. Soybean oil stocks grew to a 14 month high at 2.540 bil. lbs., at the upper end of expectations.  Spot board crush margins slipped $.13 today to $.67 bu. the lowest since May-21.  Old crop export sales at 4.5 mil. bu. were in line with expectations.  YTD commitments are down 14% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 7%.  The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 21 mmt, well above the USDA’s 27 mmt forecast.  Harvest advanced 9% to 87% complete.

bar chart up


Prices rebounded from early session weakness closing with gains of $.10 – $.16.  July-23 surged above overhead resistance to its highest close in 6 weeks.  Fears of deepening drought across the nation’s midsection fueled what was likely a short covering surge.  The midday GFS model lowered expected rainfall for late next week, coming more in line with the dryer EU model.  The European model continues to suggest minimal moisture for the central and eastern corn belt the next week to 10 days.  Temperatures however are expected to moderate early to the middle part of next week.  The midday GFS lowered rain coverage in much of Iowa, Northern IL and IN for next weekend June 9th–11th.  Precipitation was increased in S. IL and SE MO.  Areas of central and SW Iowa along with east central IL did pick up some beneficial rain the past 24 hours providing some relief.  While coverage was spotty, it was more than expected.  Old crop exports at just over 7 mil. bu. were in line with expectations.  YTD commitments at 1.503 bil. remain 36% below YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 28%.  There was 416 mil. bu. of corn used in the production of ethanol in April-23.  YTD usage at 3.40 bil. bu. is down 4.5% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down only 1.4%.  To reach the USDA forecast of 5.250 bil., usage May thru Aug will need to reach 1.850 bil. bu. a 5% increase over YA.  Possible, but not likely.  The USDA will likely wait for the June 30th acreage data to make any changes.  Yield changes in June are often made as a result of wet conditions and delayed plantings, not dryness.  In June-19 the USDA lowered their yield est. by 10 bpa to 166 bpa, as a result of flooded fields and planting delays.  In 2012, the last widespread Midwest drought, the USDA held their yield forecast steady in June at 166 bpa.  The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 36 mmt vs. the USDA’s 37 mmt est.  Harvest advanced only 2% in the past week to 29% complete


Prices closed higher across the board in choppy 2 sided trade.  MGEX was up $.14 – $.18 while both Chicago and KC were $.08 – $.10 higher.  Saudi Arabia’s tender for 480k of mill grade wheat closes today.  Results expected on Monday.  A South Korean Feedmill Group reported bought approximately 60K mt of feed wheat from Eastern Europe or Black Sea origin for $259/mt CF for Sept delivery.  Argentine wheat plantings at only 6% complete, less than half of the YA pace of 14%.  It appears the Black Sea Grain corridor still remains closed.  Export sales showed net cancellations of 8 mil. bu. of old crop and new crop sales at 17 mil.  YTD commitments for old crop are down 4% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 3%. 

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