Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded sharply lower. Forecast of rains across the US Midwest the second week of the 2 week forecast continued to push prices lower. This despite the fact that this weeks forecast is for above normal temps and below normal rain. Trade est that weekly US soybean crop rating could be down 2 pct from last week and near 65 pct G/E. Some feel over the next 2 weeks, ratings could continue to drop. This suggest USDA 2021 crop yield of 50.8 could be too high. Last years yield was 50.2. Weekly US soybean exports were near 5 mil bu vs 9 last week and 16 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,087 vs 1,331 last year. USDA goal is 2,280 vs 1,682 last year. Some feel final exports could be closer to 2,325. This could drop carryout below 100. New crop open commit is near 645 mil bu. Some est US 2021/22 also near 2,300 mil bu vs USDA 2,075. This could also drop US 2021/22 soybean carryout below 100 mil bu. US summer weather remains king.
CORN
Corn futures continue to trade lower. Since early May high, CN dropped from 7.35 to a low near 6.02. Prices rally back to near 7.17 before turning lower into todays low near 6.53. Volatility linked to private estimate that US corn acres could increase 5 million from USDA March guess. This same group is now forecast only a 2 million acre increase. This weeks US Midwest forecast calls for normal to below rain and normal to above temps. Trade est that weekly US corn crop ratings could drop to 69 pct G/E vs 72 last week. Some feel crops in E IL, W IN, KY, TN and GA crop are rated above average. Crops though in ND,SD, MN, IA and N IL are stressed and ratings there are declining. Weekly US corn exports were near 61 mil bu vs 56 last week and 36 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,124 vs 1,212 last year. USDA goal is 2,850 vs 1,778 last year. Some feel final exports could be closer to 3,050. This could drop carryout below 1,000. New crop open commit is near 594 mil bu. Some est US 2021/22 also near 3,000 mil bu vs USDA 2,450. This could also drop US 2021/22 corn carryout below 1,000 mil bu. Some feel 2 weeks of dry nd warm US Midwest weather could suggest US 2021 corn yield near 179.5 could be too high. Some are closer to 177.5.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. Talk of improved weekly US HRW and SRW crop ratings and lower commodity prices weighed on futures led by MWN and KWN. USDA is expected to estimate US spring wheat crop could drop to 36 pvt good/ex vs 38 last week. Some ND farmers report stressed crops. US HRS crop remain mostly dry. Some farmers in SD are cutting HRW for hay. Weekly US wheat exports were near 17 mil bu vs 18 last week and 21 last year. Season to date exports are near 24 vs 29 last year. USDA goal is 900 vs 985 last year. 2 week EU and Black Sea weather looks favorable for crop there. Trade est US winter wheat harvest near 10 pct vs 2 last week. There is a growing debate on the rebound of the US economy once more are vaccinated. Some analyst est Q3 US GDP at 6.5-7.0 pct. Still US interest rate markets are not trading like this growth may be sustainable. This could begin to slow food demand. US export prices continue to be a premium to other origins.
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