Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded lower. Soyoil which has been the leader of the recent price rally was down sharply due to talk that Biden might offer biofuel waivers to refiners. Soy complex is still a weather market. Rain in part of the NW Midwest offered resistance. Still, the 2 week US Midwest forecast is warm and dry. Most look for Mondays weekly US soybean crop ratings to drop 3-5 pct. China Ag Minister also lowered his estimate of domestic soybean use and imports from 102 mmt to 100 and 98 ly. Informa est US 2021 soybean acres near 89.0 vs 83.1 ly. They est yield near 51.0 vs 50.2 ly. Crop is est near 4,498 mil bu vs 4,405 and most est near 4,465. One group feels final US 20/21 soybean exports will be near 2,325 vs USDA 2,280 and carryout near only 50 vs USDA 135. They could also see US 21/22 soybean exports near 2,200 vs USDA 2,075. Watch the weather. Today, Indigo est US 2021 soybean yield based on satellite data and weather modelling a 49.9. Watch the weather.
CORN
Corn futures traded sharply lower. Better rains than what was forecasted in parts of the US NW Midwest triggered selling. Fact USDA failed to increase US corn exports and lower US 2021 and 21/22 carryout as much as hoped also triggered long liquidation. China Ag Minister suggested China will reduce corn feed to 286 mmt vs 293 previous also offered resistance. China fed 278 mmt corn ly. US 2 week weather forecast calls for below normal rains above normal temps West and normal east. Our weather guy feels this moving of the ridge back and forth is similar to current analogue years. This years, the ridge returned to the US plains and WCB in July and August. Today, Inform est US 2021 corn acres near 96.5 vs 90.8 last year. They est US 2021 corn yield near 178 vs 172 ly. This is a crop of 15,791. Most analyst are near 16,300. One group could see final US 20/21 corn exports near 3,050 mil bu vs USDA 2,850. That would suggest a carryout near 850 vs USDA 1,107. They could also see US 21/22 corn export near 3,050 vs USDA 2,450 and 21/22 carryout near 700 vs USDA 1,357. Today, Indigo est US 2021 corn yiield based on satellite data and weather modelling a 174.5. Watch the weather.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. WN range waws 6.69-6.88 and settled near 6.83. KWN range was 6.24 to 6.42 and settled near 6.35. MWN range was 7.48 to 7.79 and settled near 7.66. US Dollar was higher on inflation concerns. Rain this week across US north plains triggered long liquidation in MWN. One rain does not make a crop but went a long way to dampen the bullish bias. Fact USDA raised their est of Russia crop 1 mmt to 86 vs most est near 78-80 also offered resistance. Today Informa est US all wheat crop near 1,877 mil bu vs USDA 1,898 and 1,826 ly. HRW is est near 771 vs 659 ly, SRW 335 vs 266, White 254 vs 302 and Durum 58 vs 69 ly.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
