Written Commentary
CORN
Disappointing day in corn with prices closing down $.02-$.03 near session lows. July-24 failed after trading above 50/100 day MA resistance as well as LW’s high. Support is at LW’s low of $4.38 ¼. Support for Dec-24 is at LW’s low at $4.58 ¼. Drought conditions in Mexico will deepen over the next week, possibly longer hinging on the path of a tropical storm next week. US plantings advanced to 95% with emergence at 85%, both in line with expectations while being at or above the 5-year Ave. Ratings slipped 1% to 74% G/E as good fell 2% while both excellent and poor increased 1%. Overall ratings remain the highest since 2018. 9 states saw ratings increase, 8 decreased with 1 holding steady. EU corn imports since last July have reached only 17.5 mmt as of June 9th, down 31.5% from YA. EIA data tomorrow is expected to show ethanol production in a range from 1,054 – 1,088 tbd compared to 1,072 tbd the previous week.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex turned mostly lower with beans down $.07-$.11, meal was $5-$9 lower, while oil was within a few ticks of unchanged. Both the 50/100 day MA’s serve as resistance just below $12 with support at LW’s low of $11.74 ¼. July-24 oil continues to hold support above LW’s 43.03 low. Outside day down for July-24 meal with 50 day MA support just below today close at $357.70. Spot board crush margins also turned around today, losing $.09 to $.92 ½ bu. Much of the nation’s midsection will see net drying over the next week. Temperatures are expected to surge to much above normal readings helping stimulate crop development. Markets will be sensitive to any indication of a hot/dry pattern locking in by late June. At this point both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show normal to above normal precipitation for much of the Midwest. Soybean plantings at 87% and emergence at 70% were in line with expectations. Progress remains below YA pace and just ahead of the 5-year Ave. Initial crop ratings at 72% G/E, were in line with expectations and the highest initial ratings since 2018. EU soybean imports for 23/24 MY as of June 9th have reached 12.1 mmt, with meal imports at 14.7 mmt. Both are down nearly 3% from YA.
WHEAT
Prices were higher across all 3 classes today with Chicago leading the way up $.10-$.19, KC was $.08-$.11 higher, while MGEX was up $.03-$.05. July-24 Chicago rallied after holding support above its 100 day MA at $6.03 ¾. July-24 KC rejected trade below its 50 day MA at $6.44 ¾ in overnight trade setting up today’s recovery. Southern Russia and eastern Ukraine will likely see scattered rains by the end of the weekend providing temporary relief, however widespread soaking rains are not expected. Winter wheat conditions fell 2% to 47% G/E vs. expectations of holding steady. Overall ratings are still the highest since 2021. Harvest advanced to 12% complete well ahead of YA and 5-year Ave. Only once since 2010 has the USDA lowered WW production in the June production report. The head of Russia’s grain union states the between 15-30% of the countries winter grain has been impacted by frost damage in May, a much higher est. than outlined by the Russian Ministry of Ag. Jordan reportedly bought 60k mt of optional origin milling wheat for just under $272/mt CF for July shipment. Egypt’s GASC wheat reportedly bought 400k mt of wheat in their recent tender. No price breakdown available as of this writing. 180k mt was from Romania, 120k Ukraine and 100k from Bulgaria.
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