Ag Market View for July16
Soybean futures traded higher. News of new US soybean sales to China offered support. 7 day US Midwest rainfall should help US crops. 2 week forecast still suggest some ridging. NOAA 90 day US Midwest forecast calls for above normal temps and equal chance of normal rains. Weekly US soybean old crop export sales were near 313 mt. Total commit is near 46.3 mmt versus 48.6 last year. USDA goal is 44.9 mmt versus 47.6 last year. China soybean export commit is near 16.2 mmt. There is 2.6 mmt in the unknown. USDA estimates global soybean trade near 159.3 mmt versus 148.3 last year. Brazil exports are est near 89.0 versus 74.5 last year. China imports are est near 96.0 versus 82.5 ly. US new crop open soybean sales are near 8.1 mmt with China near 4.6. USDA announced 522 mt US soybean to China and 351 mt US soybean to unknown. Range of guesses for US 2020/21 soybean carryout is 300-550 versus USDA 425. Key is weather and final yield.
Corn futures traded higher. Good old crop US corn export sales and concern about China buying US/Ukraine corn offered support. 2nd week US Midwest weather forecast also could see above normal rains and above normal temps. Ongoing concern about resurgence of the virus in US and Asia offers resistance. Some feel USDA may be too high in their estimate of global and US demand. Over the next 7 days US Midwest rains will favor IA, NIL, N IN and OH. US Midwest 6-10 day call for normal rains in the east and above normal temps. US 8-14 day calls for below normal rains and above normal temps. NOAA 90 day US Midwest forecast calls for above normal temps and equal chance of normal rains. This could suggest an early harvest. Weekly US corn old crop export sales were near 981 mt. Total commit is near 43.4 mmt versus 49.6 last year. USDA goal is 45.0 mmt versus 52.4 last year. China corn export commit is near 2.1 mmt. USDA estimates global corn trade near 171.1 mmt versus 181.0 last year. Brazil exports are est near 34.0 versus 39.6 last year. Ukraine exports are est near 32.0 versus 30.3 last year. Argentina exports are est near 37.0 versus 37.2 last year. Range of guesses for US 2020/21 corn carryout is 2,200-3,100 versus USDA 2,648. Key is weather and final yield.
Wheat market giveth and then taketh away. Wheat futures closed sharply lower on lack of confirmation of US SRW sale to China. Funds bought 17,000 wheat contract on Wednesday but open interest went up only 3,000. US SRW barge basis firmed but there was no indication of a big jump in the basis that might reflect new business. Some feel that US will need to sell as much as 5 cargoes to China to tighten US SRW supplies enough to push futures higher. Liquidation of long wheat short corn spreads may have also weighed on Wheat values. Weekly US wheat export sales were near 764 mt. Total commit is near 8.3 mmt versus 7.8 last year. USDA goal is 25.8 mmt versus 26.2 last year. USDA estimates global wheat trade near 188.0 mmt versus 187.0 last year. Russia exports are est near 36.0 versus 34.5 last year. Europe exports are est near 27.0 versus 34.5 last year. Australia exports are est near 24.5 versus 9.2 last year. Range of guesses for US 2020/21 wheat carryout is 900-1,040 versus USDA 942. Key is final demand.
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