Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 lower closing near session lows. Spreads weakened while both Sept-26 and Dec-26 slipped to a 2-week lows. Speculative selling yesterday cut the MM long position back down to 98k contracts. O.I. however, was up nearly 16k contracts. Yesterday’s EIA data showed ethanol production rebounded to 330 mil. gallons, up from 322 mil. the previous week and above the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage est. for the first time in 15 weeks. Export sales at 56 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 3.424 bil. bu. are up 24% YOY vs. the USDA forecast up 16%. Pace analysis would suggest the USDA export forecast at 3.325 bil. is still 25-50 mil. bu. too low. New crop commitments have reached 340 mil. bu. matching YA while the highest in 5 years. Noted buyers of new crop was unknown – 17 mil. and Mexico – 15 mil. Datagro analysts are forecasting Brazil’s 26/27 production at 147.5 mmt, well above the USDA est. of 139. The EU Commission slashed their 26/27 corn production forecast 13.4% to 51.9 mmt while raising their import forecast 4.9 mmt to 24 mmt. The USDA is forecasting production at 53.8 mmt and imports at 22.5.
SOYBEANS
Prices were slightly lower across the complex with beans $.01-$.04 lower, meal was steady to $1 lower while oil was off 35-80 points. Both Aug-26 and Nov-26 traded to 2-3 week lows. Inside trade for Aug-26 meal while Aug-26 oil traded down and filled a gap from early July. Crush margins are off another $.11 at $2.65 ½ bu., the lowest in 4 months. Our parent company, ADM, reported they were expanding their North American crush capacity by 25 mil. bu., or roughly 5% by improving 4 existing facilities in Frankfort IN, Deerfield MO, Lincoln NE, and Spiritwood ND. Updates are expected to be completed by mid-2028 to early 2029. China’s Sinograin announced they will auction off 500k mt of soybeans on Friday to free up storage for incoming US beans. IMO the market has little wiggle room for US yields slipping below the current 53 bpa trendline forecast if China fulfills 25 mmt of US beans purchases. US Gulf FOB offers are $.10-$.20 below Brazilian offers Sept thru Nov. Bean exports at 60 mil. was at the high end of expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.531 bil. are down 18% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 20%. Old crop shipments to China held at 12.3 mmt while new crop purchases of 519k tons took YTD commitments to 2.78 mmt (102 mil. bu.). There are another 2.829 mmt (103 mil. bu.) to unknown. The USDA also announced a flash sale of 132k mt (4.8 mil. bu.) to China. New crop commitments spiked to 274 mil. bu., a 4-year high while up 146% YOY. Meal sales at 114k tons were below expectations. Old crop commitments are up 15% YOY vs. the USDA forecast of up 12%. Oil commitments slipped to 827 mil. lbs. are down 65% vs. USDA forecast down 60%. Datagro is projecting 26/27 Brazilian soybean production at 185.6 mmt, in line with the USDA forecast of 186 mmt. They have acres up .3% to 49.3 mil. HA.
WHEAT
Prices range from $.03-$.07 higher with all 3 classes closing well off session highs. CGO Sept-26 was up $.02 ¾ at $6.63 ½, KC Sept-26 was $.05 ¼ higher at $7.30 ¾, while MIAX Sept-26 was up $.06 ½ at $7.11 ½. Russia reportedly struck a dry-cargo vessel near the Ukrainian port of Pivdennyi and 2 more near Odesa. Ukrainian drone strikes damaged a major Russian grain export terminal near the Kerch Strait causing “significant damage.” No end in sight as both sides continue to target grain storage, infrastructure and vessels. Rusagrotrans lowered Russia’s July export forecast to 1.9 mmt while expecting August shipments between 3-3.5 mmt. likely heading lower if situation doesn’t improve soon. US exports at 11 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments at 254 mil. are down 28% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. Pace analysis would suggest the USDA export forecast is too high, however given the situation in the Black Sea I look for no change in the Aug-26 WASDE. The EU Commission lowered their 2026/27 wheat production forecast nearly 2 mmt to 124.4 mmt while also cutting exports 1 mmt to 29 mmt. Their forecast is well below the USDA est. of 136 mmt with exports at 31 mmt.
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