Written Commentary
CORN
Corn futures are lower and near 4.82. Open interest has increased 480,000 contracts since the August, 2024 low. Rally tech related and due to dry Argentina weather, wet Brazil weather and increase demand for US corn. Drier Brazil weather and rains in Argentina forecast has triggered some profit taking. Weekly US corn exports were 1,247 mt. Season to date exports are 20.5 mmt vs 15.6 last year. USDA goal is 62.2 mmt vs 58.2 ly. USDA est World trade near 191.4 mmt vs 192.0 ly. Brazil is 47.0 vs 39.5. Argentina is 36.0 vs 34.0. Ukraine is 23.0 vs 29.5 ly.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures are lower and near 10.45. Open interest has increased 50,000 contracts since the December, 2024 low. Rally tech related and due to dry Argentina weather, wet Brazil weather and increase demand for US soybean especially crush. Drier Brazil weather and rains in Argentina forecast has triggered some profit taking. Weekly US soybean exports were 729 mt. Season to date exports are 33.0 mmt vs 27.7 last year. USDA goal is 49.6 mmt vs 46.1 ly. USDA est World soybean trade at 181.9 mmt vs 177.5 ly. Brazil exports are 105.5 mmt vs 104.2 ly.SH is back below 10.50 with key support near 10.21. SM open interest is up 40,000 contract since January high. SMH is also back near 300 with support near 290. BOH is between 43 support and 48 resistance.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.33. Funds may be adding to large short due to lack of supply worries and slow demand for US exports. Weekly US wheat exports were 484 mt. Season to date exports are 13.7 mmt vs 11.0 last year. USDA goal is 23.1mmt vs 19.2 ly. USDA est World wheat trade at 212.0 mmt vs 221.2 ly. WH is back below 5.40 with key support near 5.26. Open interest has increased 130,000 contracts since October high. Matif futures have traded lower. Russia export prices were quoted higher last week.
>>See more market commentary here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
