Written Commentary
CORN
Old crop futures surged $.08-$.10 today while new crop prices rebounded $.03. Mch-25 pushed thru $4.80 resistance carving out a 15 month high on the weekly chart. Late yesterday the BAGE reported Argentine corn is 95% planted. Crop ratings fell in response to the recent hot/dry weather. 39% of the crop was rated G/E, down from 42% LW. 14% of the crop is rated poor to VP, up from 9% LW. Despite the decline in ratings they held their production forecast unchanged at 50 mmt, vs. USDA at 51 mmt. Current USDA forecasts show stable production among global exporters in 2024/25 MY. Ukraine’s 2024/25 exports as of Jan 17th have reached 11.15 mmt, down slightly from 11.24 mmt YA. For the 24/25 MY the USDA is forecasting exports will only reach 23 mmt, down 22% YOY. Russia’s Ag. Ministry increased their corn export tax 13.6% to 5,042 roubles/mt for the period ending Jan. 27th. Spot corn should find good support above $4.60. A rally above $5.00 will likely require planting delays in Brazil.
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex with beans up $.07-$.15 led by old crop, meal was $2-$3 higher while oil is up 50-65. Spreads across the complex strengthened. Mch-25 beans rebounded from a test of its 100 day MA, however remained within yesterday’s range. Inside trade for Mch-25 meal with today’s recovery challenging its 50 day MA resistance just below $300 ton. Inside trade for Mch-25 oil as it consolidates $.45-$.46 lb. Spot board crush margins slipped $.01 ½ to $1.22 ½ bu. while bean oil PV rebounded to 43.5% a fresh 2 month high. The BAGE reported Argentine soybeans are 98% planted. Crop ratings plunged in response to the recent hot/dry weather. The percentage of the crop rated G/E fell 17% to 32%. 21% of the crop is rated poor to VP, up from 8% LW. Despite the decline in ratings they held their production forecast unchanged at 50 mmt, vs. USDA at 51 mmt. A lot of factors will drive price action when trade resumes Monday night ranging from SA weather to updates on exactly how the Trump Administration will handle the Supreme Court decision on TikTok. So far Trump has stated the SC decision was expected and should be respected. He went on to state he would decide soon how his administration would respond. A lot of moving parts as we move closer to a record SA harvest. Mch-25 beans finds itself near the midpoint of its $9.50-$11 range it’s been in since late July-24. Expect volatility to start accelerating.
WHEAT
The weakling in the Ag. space today closing steady to $.02 higher across the 3 classes. Mch-25 Chicago premium over corn has dropped to a new low at $.53 bu. Ukraine’s 2024/25 exports as of Jan 17th have reached 10.33 mmt, up 24% from YA. For the 24/25 MY the USDA is forecasting exports will reach 16.5 mmt, down 11% YOY. The market continues to brace for a significant slowdown in exports from the Black Sea region over the 2nd half of the 24/25 MY. Russia’s Ag. Ministry increased their wheat export tax 10.7% to 4,699.60 roubles/mt for the period ending Jan. 27th Wire services are reporting a Taiwan feed importer purchased roughly 195k mt of feed wheat between $259-$260/mt CF for May thru July shipment. Much of the wheat likely sourced from Australia with perhaps some for US.
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