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Ag Market View for Jan 14.25

CORN

Prices were steady to $.02 lower today after old crop futures carved out a fresh 7 month high.  Spreads were slightly weaker.  Mch/May traded out to a 3 ½ low at $.10 ¾ before recovering.  Mch-25 was not able to pierce key resistance is at the 100 week MA at $4.80.  Central and northern growing areas of Brazil are expected to see a dryer pattern for the 2nd half of January which should provide better opportunities for early soybean harvest and 2nd crop corn plantings.  Conab lowered their Brazilian production forecast slightly to 119.55 mmt, well below the USDA est. of 127 mmt.  Money managers bought just over 24.5k contracts of corn in the period ending last Tues. the 7th, extending their long position to 253k contracts.  With additional heavy buying the past 3 sessions we suspect this long position has swelled to nearly 310k contracts which if realized would be the largest since May-22.  Index funds have also extended their length in the corn market to over 391k contracts, the largest since July-22.  EU corn imports as of Jan. 12th at 10.6 mmt is up 5% YOY.  Dec. 1 corn stocks at 12.074 bil. were nearly 100 mil. bu. below YA however still the 2nd highest in 7 years.  Stocks divided by 1st Qtr. usage at was 265%, also slightly below YA.  Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production last week between 321-325 mil. gallons, vs. 324 mil. the previous week

QST corn futures chart on 1.14.25

SOYBEANS

Prices were mixed today with beans $.02-$.05 lower, meal was down $2 while oil was 20-25 points higher.  Spreads finished steady to slightly weaker across the complex.  Mch-25 beans rejected trade above its November high at $10.55.  Resistance for Mch-25 meal is at its 100 day MA at $310.70.  Mch-25 oil jumped out to a fresh 2 month high.  Not much resistance on the chart until the Nov-24 high at 49.38.  The USDA announced another sale of 198k mt (7.2 mil. bu.) of soybeans to China.  Hot/dry conditions will continue to dominate key growing areas in Central Argentina and southern Brazil for another few days.  Daily highs in the upper 90’s to low 100’s continue to extract soil moisture causing stress for developing crops.  Some relief is offered by this weekend in the form of scattered showers.  Better prospects for rains and milder temperatures are expected next week.  MM’s last week were net buyers of 13.8k contracts of beans, 6.3k of meal while selling 3.4k oil.  The MM net position as of last Tuesday was still net short 28,612 contracts.  With heavy buying the past 3 session we’ve got their position now net long just over 13k contracts.  This would be their first net long position since the end of 2023.  Conab upped their Brazilian production forecast .1 mmt to 166.3 mmt, below the USDA est. of 169 mmt.  Most private forecasts remain above 170 mmt despite recent dryness in RGDS.  EU soybean imports as of Jan. 12th at 7.38 mmt are up 14% YOY.  Meal imports at 10.6 mmt are up 31% YOY.  The Malaysian PO Board forecasts 2025 palm oil production will reach 19.5 mmt, up less than 1% from YA.  They went on to forecast exports at 17.3 mmt, up 2.4% from YA.  Dec. 1 stocks at 3.1 bil. bu. were up 100 mil. from YA, however stocks/Q1 usage at 192% were the lowest in 4 years.  NOPA crush from Dec-24 is expected to reach 205.5 mil. bu., up from 193.2 mil. in Nov-24.  Oil stocks are expected to rise to 1.25 bil. lbs., up from 1.084 the previous month.

QST soybeans chart on 1.14.225

WHEAT

Prices finished mixed from down $.02-$.04 in MGEX to up $.01 in Chicago.  Mch-25 Chicago held just below its monthly high at $5.52 ¾ with the 50 day MA just above that at $5.55 ¼.  Fresh 4 week high for KC Mch-25 before falling back to unchanged.  Today’s rally attempt in Mch-25 MGEX was capped at its 50 day MA.  Little to no moisture is expected across the WCB and US plain states over the next week while much of the continental US holds in a much cooler than normal pattern the next 2 weeks.  Jordan reportedly bought 60k mt of optional origin hard wheat at $267.60/mt CF for March shipment.  They were tendering for up to 120k mt.  Japan’s Ag. Ministry is tendering for nearly 133k mt of Aussie, US or Canadian food grade wheat in a tender that closes on Thursday.  Last week MM’s were net sellers of 2.2k contracts of MGEX, nearly 1.9k of CGO while buying 2k KC futures.  Their combined short position across all 3 classes is nearly 150k contracts, vs. the record short of 198.6k in Dec-23.  EU soft wheat exports as of Jan. 12th at 11.5 mmt are down 35% YOY.  Dec. 1st stocks at 1.570 bil. bu. were a 4 year high while stocks/ Q1 & Q2 usage at 134% were also a 4 year high.  

QST wheat futures chart on 1.14.25

Charts provided by QST.

 

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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