Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended slightly higher. SH is near 13.86. Range was 13.72 to 13.95. BOH tested 59.07. SMH had a range of 411-420. Last Friday soy complex traded private estimates of South America soybean crop in a wave of how low can you go. Monday, trade sold the rumor of increase chances of rain next week across the dry areas of South America. The debate now is how much crop South Brazil, Paraguay and north Argentina have lost before the rains. Noon weather maps increased Argentina rains. CONAB est the Brazil soybean crop at 140 vs 143 and USDA 144. Argentina crop watchers and farmers are crying for a rain. Key now is tomorrow USDA numbers, next weeks South America rains and if funds want to hold longs after the USDA report and the rains.
CORN
Corn futures closed slightly higher in a narrow range. Today some are evening up positions before tomorrows USDA report. Wheat is gaining on corn. The big question today is what will the machines trade after USDA report and during next weeks South America rain event. Feels like going into the 4th of July weekend here in US with 30-40 pct of the Midwest dry, prices are high and there is a rain forecasted. Last Friday grain futures traded private estimates of South America corn crop in a wave of how low can you go. Monday, trade sold the rumor of increase chances of rain next week across the dry areas of South America. The debate now is how much crop south Brazil, Paraguay and north Argentina have lost before the rains. Today, noon maps added rains for Argentina. CONAB est the Brazil corn crop at 113 mmt vs 117 previous and USDA 118. Argentina crop watchers and farmers are crying for a rain. Some fear that early planted crops could see as much as 40-50 pct drop in yields if the rains do not materialize. They also feel crop could respond to the rains with as much as 20-25 pct of their corn and soybean crop yet to be planted. Normally, the entire crop is planted by now. CBOT is closed Monday for holiday. Buckle up for Monday night trade.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded higher. There may have been some evening up before tomorrow’s USDA report. Some have sold wheat futures lately as a hedge against long corn and soybean positions. WH range was 7.58-7.70. KWH 7.75-7.93. MWH 9.13-9.33. KWH has been gaining on MWH as weather/crop focus has shifted from last years lower Canada and US spring wheat crops to the dryness across US south plains. Wheat prices have also been on the defensive due to lower US wheat export pace. World wheat trade is improving. French wheat prices have traded lower. France has lost exports to Black Sea and Australia. Higher South Hemisphere wheat crops have also weighed on US wheat futures. Trade is looking for lower US Dec 1 wheat stocks from last year, slight increase in US 2021/22 wheat carryout and higher US 2022 winter wheat acres on tomorrows report.
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