Written Commentary
CORN
Prices finished $.01-$.03 lower settling well off session lows. Spreads were steady to weaker. May-25 traded to its lowest level since the first trading day of Feb-25 with support at $4.84. Late yesterday Pres. Trump reiterated that 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are on schedule and set to start in early March. Time for cutting a deal is running short. The API continues to press the Trump Administration and the EPA to authorize the nationwide sale of E-15 year round, rather than just in select midwestern states. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production last week ranged from 310-320 mil. gallons, vs. 319 mil. the previous week. US egg production in Jan-25 fell to 8.865 bil. the lowest for the month in 9 years, down 4.2% from Jan-24 and off 2.8% from Dec-24. The number of layer birds fell to 363.3 mil. in Jan-25 down 2.6% from Dec-24 and 3.8% YOY. EU corn imports as of Feb. 23rd have reached 13.5 mmt, up 8% from YA. Despite recent speculative selling we est. MM’s remain long roughly 330k contracts of corn. Since 2010 the Feb. Outlook Conf. corn acreage est. was above the March intentions 6 times, below intentions 9 times, while equaling it once.
SOYBEANS
Prices closed mixed and very near unchanged today. Beans ranged from up $.02 in spot Mch-25 to down $.01 for new crop. Meal was $2 higher while oil down 25-30 points. Bean spreads firmed while products spreads were mixed. Spot oil spreads hit new lows just ahead of Friday’s FND. While May-25 beans forged a new low for the month, it held support at the 50 day MA at $10.37 ¼. May-25 meal rejected trade below $300 per ton. Next support below today’s low is the contract low at $290.80. May-25 oil violated its short term trendline support while dipping under $.46 lbs. Waves of rain are forecast to continue across central and southern growing regions of Argentina this week. While generally beneficial to crops in these key growing areas, some isolated flooding may occur. Some rain may stretch into northern crop areas however will likely remain in a hotter and dryer than normal pattern. In Brazil a dryer than normal trend will continue across southern and east central to NE growing areas. Above normal precipitation in Mato Grosso will slow bean harvest and 2nd corn plantings. Trade is expecting the Outlook Forum will show US bean acres increase 2.5-3.5 mil. over 2024. Since 2010 the Feb. Outlook Conf. soybean acreage est. was above the March intentions 9 times, below intentions 5 times, while equaling it once. Lower production forecasts in Brazil has triggered a rebound in basis levels, however FOB prices remain roughly $.50-$.60 bu. below the US thru May-25. Recently AgRural lowered their Brazilian production forecast nearly 3 mmt to 168.2 mmt due to drought conditions across the deep south. Dr. Cordonnier lowered his forecast 1 mmt to 170 mmt vs. the USDA est. of 169 mmt and Conab at 166 mmt. EU soybean imports as of Feb. 23rd have reached 8.9 mmt, up 11% vs. YA while meal imports at 12.5 mmt are up 29%.
WHEAT
Prices were $.04-$.08 lower across all 3 classes today. While both Chicago and KC May-25 contracts dipped to 3 week lows, Chicago rejected trade below its 100 day MA, while KC quickly recovered from trading under $6.00 bu. Next support for May-25 MGEX is the 100 day MA at $6.23 ¾. Much above normal temperatures have spread across the US midsection. Upper 70’s to low 80’s were reported across the Southern plains yesterday. Jordan passed on making any purchase in their recent 120k mt tender. Egypt claims they have adequate supplies of bean oil and wheat to cover 5 months of usage. SovEcon lowered their 24/25 Russian export forecast another .6 mmt to 42.2 mmt, well below the USDA est. of 45.5 mmt. Texas WW ratings improved 4% in the past week to 37% G/E. EU soft wheat exports at only 13.7 mmt thru Feb. 23rd are down 36% from YA. Since 2010 the Feb. Outlook Conf. all wheat acreage est. was above the March intentions 6 times, while below intentions 9 times.
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