Written Commentary
Soybeans, soyoil, soymeal, corn and wheat traded higher. US Dollar was lower. US stocks were higher. Crude was higher. Metals were higher.
SOYBEANS
Soybean ended higher led by new crop Nov. There was some early pressure on nearby contracts as March open interest was liquidated in front of first notice. Drop in weekly US soybean exports and Talk of expanding Brazil harvest also offered resistance. Talk of tighter US 2020/21 and 2021/22 US soybean supplies offers support. Some feel SX may not be high enough to encourage US farmer to plant 90.0 million acres. SX traded over 12.00 for the first time since July, 2014. Weekly US soybean exports were near 26.5 mil bu vs 21.0 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,870.8 vs 1,059.4 ly. USDA goal is 2,250 vs 1,682 ly. Some est US exports could be closer to 2,350. This could be the difference between a carryout closer to 100 vs USDA 120.
CORN
Corn futures traded higher and closed near session highs. There was some early pressure due to liquidation of March open interest before first notice. There was early talk of no deliveries against March corn. CK help support near 20 day moving average near 5.43. Next resistance is near 5.55. CZ made new contract highs. Weekly US corn exports were near 48.5 mil bu vs 36.3 last year. Season to date exports are near 944.7 vs 524.0 ly. USDA goal is 2,600 vs 1,778 ly. Some est US exports could be closer to 2,900. This could be the difference between a carryout closer to 1,200 vs USDA 1,502. Strong demand for US export and talk of higher domestic use could support higher corn prices. USDA est of near record high US 2021 corn acres and yield but only increased carryout 50 mil bu should also support prices. Corn could also fund new demand new inoculations against the virus begins to add to fuel and feed demand. There is also talk of steady increase in inflation which could also trigger new speculative buying. Key will be US 2021 weather and final crop size.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. WK had an inside day and tested Fridays high near 6.72. WN trade above Friday high. Both continued to trend higher from Dec lows. KWK also tested Fridays high near 6.51. KWN made a new weekly high near 6.55. Much of new buying was due to expectations that USDA weekly US south plains crop ratings will drop due to last week’s record cold temps. Uncertainty over Russia new crop export policy and talk of declining EU wheat exports also offers support. USDA est US 2021 wheat acres near 45.0 vs 44.3 last year and yield near 49.1 vs 49.7 last year. USDA est of US 2021/22 wheat carryout is near 698 mil bu vs 836 this year. This should support wheat prices. Weekly US wheat exports were near 11.9 mil bu vs 16.0 last year. Season to date exports are near 652.5 vs 667.1 ly. USDA goal is 985 vs 965 ly.
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