Written Commentary
CORN
Prices closed near session highs up $.03-$.05 with support being generated by good demand and the likelihood for lower SA production in tomorrow’s WASDE report. This weekend saw dry and extremely hot conditions across much of central and northern Argentina. Some beneficial but spotty showers occurred in Southern Santa Fe and Northern Buenos Aires. Export inspections at 52.5 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and just above the 50 mil. bu. needed to reach the USDA forecast of 2.450 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 909 mil. are up 34% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 7%. Largest takers were Mexico 13 – mil. and Japan with 8 mil. In addition the USDA announced the sale of 365k mt (14.4 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. On Friday the CFTC reported MM’s were net buyers of 13,496 contracts of corn extending their long position to just over 364k, the largest since April-2022. The index fund long position in corn has swelled to 480k, the largest since May-2022. The Ave. est. is looking for a 1.5 mmt reduction in Argentine production. AgRural is reporting Brazil’s 1st crop is 18% harvested while the 2nd crop is 20% planted, both well below their historical average.
SOYBEANS
Prices were quietly lower today with beans steady to $.01 lower, meal was down less than $1 while oil was 20-25 lower. Bean spreads firmed slightly while product spreads eased. Next support for Mch-25 beans is LW’s low at $10.31 ¾, for meal it’s $295.30. Inside trade for Mch-25 oil. Spot board crush margins slipped $.05 to $1.14 ½ bu. while bean oil PV slipped to 43.2%. Tariffs and SA weather continue to drive price action. President Trump is expected to announce 25% tariffs on US steel and aluminum imports today while reciprocal tariffs are expected to be announced Tues. or Wednesday. Heaviest rains in Brazil this weekend were in SC Mato Grosso and NC MGDS keeping harvest and 2nd crop corn plantings at a slower than normal pace. Less frequent rain will enable better opportunities for fieldwork in SC and center west areas this week. Export inspections at 38 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and well above the 13 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 1.825 bil. bu. Last week’s inspections were revised up by nearly 5 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 1.295 bil. are up 14.5% from YA vs. USDA forecast of up 8%. China took 20 mil. MM’s were net buyers across the soybean complex with less than 1k contracts of beans, 2.4k contracts of oil and nearly 19k in meal. Index funds were net buyers in beans and oil, while lite sellers in the meal. AgRural is reporting bean harvest in Brazil advanced only 6% LW to 15% vs. 24% YA.
WHEAT
Prices were $.02-$.08 lower across all 3 classes today with KC leading the declines. In the US, good snow is expected to spread over much of the Southern plains midweek ahead of the frigid cold temperatures. Similar story for the Black Sea region. The forecast for snow helped fuel the lower trade. Export inspections at 20 mil. bu. were a 4 month high and above expectations. They were also above the 16 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 535 mil. are up 24% from YA, vs. the USDA of up 20%. MM’s were net buyers across all 3 classes of wheat with 20k Chicago, 8k in MGEX and just over 6k in KC. Their combined net short position fell by 35k contracts to 141.5k. IKAR is reporting the export price for wheat in Russia ended last week at $245/mt up $2 mt. IKAR also lowered their Russian export forecast .5 mmt to 43 mmt, well below the USDA est. of 46 mmt. SovEcon is reporting their grain exports LW at 640k mt down from 660k the previous week, which included 580k mt of wheat, down from 590k the previous week.
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