Ag Market View for Dec 16
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 4 cents, HRW up 5; HRS Wheat up 3, Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal up $4.50, and Soyoil up 5 points.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 28 yuan in soybeans, up 21 in Corn, up 37 in Soymeal, up 20 in Soyoil, and up 52 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 13 ringgit at 3,368 (basis March) firmed by crude oil prices.
South America Weather Forecast: In Brazil, conditions are still expected to be favorable for crop development in most of the nation. In Argentina, a beneficial rain event is still expected to impact central and southern production areas of the nation Friday. The GFS model has reduced the intensity of the associated weather disturbance some. There will be some pockets that miss out from much rain in this event though. A period of dryness after the rain event will then lead to some increase of crop stress in the driest areas.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 1,000 Corn; net bought 11,000 Soybeans; bought 7,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 23,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 285,000 Corn; net long 214,000 Soybeans; net long 74,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 112,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 1,300 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,100; Corn up 9,100; Soybeans up 3,100 contracts; Soymeal up 865 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,900.
There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat down 2; HRS down17)—Registrations total 80 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 69; Soybeans 175; Soyoil 1,421 lots; Soymeal 250; Rice 313; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,061.
Tender Activity—Bangladesh to pass on 50,000t optional wheat—
U.S. soybean processors notched their third largest monthly crush on record in November, while soymeal exports surged to the highest for any month in nearly eight years, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA)
NOPA said its members crushed 181.018 million bushels of soybeans last month, down from a record 185.245 million bushels in October but up from 164.909 million bushels in November 2019.
It was the largest November crush on record, eclipsing the previous mark of 166.959 million bushels set in November 2018. It was also the third largest monthly crush ever, behind only October 2020 and March 2020.
NOPA pegged soyoil supplies among its members at the end of November at a four-month high of 1.558 billion lbs, up from 1.487 billion lbs at the end of October and 1.448 billion lbs at the end of November 2019.
Soymeal exports in November jumped to 1,081,653 tons, the most for a single month since January 2013, according to NOPA data. That was up from 945,835 tons in October and 868,769 tons in November last year.
- BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 88,989 TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 93,000 TNS IN PREVIOUS WEEKLY FORECAST – ANEC
- BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.457 MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 2.917 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
Argentine oilseed workers continued their wage strike on Tuesday after the failure of recent contract negotiations, two unions representing soymeal factory workers and the CIARA chamber of manufacturers said. The country’s key agro-export sector has been bogged down by work stoppages by employees of companies that manufacture soy-based livestock feed
European wheat futures edged higher on Tuesday, steadying after a slide in the previous session as Russia’s less competitive prices in an Egyptian tender kept the focus on an export tax introduced by Moscow. March milling wheat settled 1 euro, or 0.5%, higher at 207.25 euros ($251.77) a tonne.
Australia will launch a formal appeal to the World Trade Organization (WTO) later on Wednesday seeking a review of China’s decision to impose hefty tariffs on imports of Australian barley. Acknowledging the appeal may take years to be resolved, Birmingham told reporters that Australia had little choice after Beijing in May imposed five years of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties totaling 80.5% on Canberra’s barley – effectively stopping a billion-dollar trade in its tracks.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.