Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were down $.01 ½ – $.02 ½ for the day and only slightly higher for the week. Spreads firmed slightly. Next significant support for Mch-25 corn not until the 50 day MA near $4.34. Tuesday’s bullish WASDE report seems like a distant memory. With fresh news lacking, the non-threatening weather forecasts in South America tipped prices lower. Ukraine’s Ag. Minister increased their 2024 grain production forecast 1 mmt to 55 mmt. They expect to export 40.3 mmt of grain, well below the 51 mmt shipped in the 23/24 MY. Their corn export forecast at 20.5 mmt (8 mmt already shipped) is well below the USDA est. of 23 mmt. China raised their 2024 grain production forecast to a record 706.5 mmt, up 1.6% from YA. Corn production is estimated at 294.9 mmt, just above the USDA est. of 292 mmt. The BAGE pegs Argentine plantings at 56%, up from 48% LW and well above the 32% from YA. On average 40% of the crop is planted by mid-Dec. Strong demand and tighter US stocks was enough to get prices back to $4.50 but so far no higher with combined Argentine/ Brazilian production pushing record levels.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with beans down $.08, meal was $3-$4 lower while oil closed slightly lower. Spreads across the complex were mixed. After rejecting trade above $10 from earlier in the week Jan-25 beans have slipped back into its $9.75-$10 range. Jan-25 bean oil rebounded of its 100 day MA at 42.31. Resistance above the market is at its 50 day MA at 43.64. Jan-25 meal carved out a new contract low by a tick at $285.50. Next support is the 2020 low at $280. The favorable SA weather forecasts outweighed the supportive demand news as the USDA announced another sale of 200k mt (7.3 mil. bu.) of soybeans to an unknown buyers. Widespread rains fell across Argentina in the past 24 hours, heaviest amounts however were in lower producing areas in the NE. Forecasts continue to point toward a decent mix of rain and sunshine over the next week to 10 days. Some dry areas may develop depending on how well these rains are distributed. Much of Brazil will experience normal to above normal rainfall over the next week to 10 days with no extreme heat expected. President elect Trump invited Chinese Pres. XI Jinping to attend his inauguration next month, if accepted perhaps an indication the 2 global powers can avoid a repeat of a full fledge trade war during his first administration. The BAGE reports Argentine plantings advanced to 65% complete. NOPA crush for November to be released 11 AM on Mon. Expectations are for NOPA members to have processed 196.7 mil. bu. While this would be a record high for Nov. and up 4.1% from Nov-23, its down 1.6% from the all-time record high of 200 mil. bu. in Oct. Bean oil stocks held by NOPA members is expected to jump to 1.123 bil. lbs. up 5% from the 1.069 bil. at the end of Oct.
WHEAT
Prices were $.04-$.06 lower across all 3 classes today. New lows for the week in Mch-25 Chicago. KC Mch-25 flipped from being $.05 under Chicago to start the week, to $.05 over Chicago to end the week. Dryer conditions in Australia will allow wheat harvest to move along smoothly. Lite snow cover is expected to form over Eastern Ukraine, Southern Russia and Kazakhstan providing some moisture benefit. Low temperatures this weekend are not as harsh as forecasted earlier this week with no crop damage expected. The BAGE reports Argentina’s wheat harvest advanced 16% LW to 64% complete. They left their production est. unchanged at 18.6 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 17.5 mmt. China’s Stat Bureau forecast their 2024 wheat production at 140.1 mmt, in line with the USDA est. Ukraine’s Ag. Minister expects their wheat exports for 24/25 MY will reach 16.2 mmt, just below the USDA est. of 16.5 mmt. Wire services are reporting that Russia has halted the shipment of 2 cargoes of wheat to Syria over concerns of payment delays with the new Govt. Ukraine has pledged that they can step up and supply Syria with needed grain and other foodstuffs. Russia’s Govt. has slashed their wheat export tax 15% to 4,136.50 roubles/mt for the period ending Dec. 24th.
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