Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were mixed and within $.01 of unchanged as futures seemed stuck between soybeans wanting to rebound and weakness in wheat. Spreads were able to recover a bit. Recovery efforts for Dec-24 continue to be capped near $4.00. On day 2 of the Pro Farmer crop tour, participants in IN forecast yields at 187.5 bpa, above 181 from YA and their 3-year Ave. of 184. Last week the USDA pegged IN yields at a record 207 bpa. In NE tour participants found an average yield of 173.3 bpa, above their 2023 est. of 167.2 and above their 3 year Ave. of 169.4 bpa. The USDA is forecasting NE yields at a record 194 bpa. EIA data showed ethanol production increased to 1,100 tbd last week, up from 1,072 tbd the previous week and up 5% from YA. There was nearly 111 mil. bu. of corn used, or 15.8 mil. bu. per day, above the 14.7 mbd needed to reach the USDA. If LW’s production holds over the last 2 weeks of the MY, corn usage would reach 5.465 bil. bu. Implied gasoline usage last week was up 1.6% from the previous week and up 3.2% YOY. Late yesterday the BAGE forecast 2024/25 Argentine corn plantings would drop 17% to 6.3 mil. HA, in line with the USDA est. of 6.4 mil. HA. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 25-50 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex finished higher across the board in choppy 2 sided trade. Beans were $.04-$.06 higher, meal was steady to up $1 while oil was up 30-40. An inside trading session for Nov-24 soybeans with resistance at LW’s high of $10.02 ½. Inside trade for Sept-24 meal with support at $300 with resistance at the 50 day MA at $327.80. Sept-24 oil reached a new high for the past week with next resistance at 42.61. Spot board crush margins slipped $.02 bu. to 1.75 ½ bu. with bean oil PV stilling holding just below 40%. No change with US weather as much of the Midwest will remain dry over the next week. Only scattered showers for the far WCB and northern plains. The central and eastern corn belt to remain in a mild temperature pattern for a few more days. By this weekend above normal temperatures will impact much of the Midwest which could threaten later maturing crops, particularly soybeans. Dryer than normal conditions look to extend into early Sept. A widespread rain event is needed to optimize soybean yields. USDA announced the sales of 132k mt (5 mil. bu.) of soybeans to China and 121k mt (4.4 mil. bu.) to unknown. That’s nearly 40 mil. bu. this week. Pro Farmer crop tour participants in IN found average pod counts in 3×3 squares were 1,409, above the 1,310 from YA and the 3-year Ave. of 1,239. Pod counts in NE at 1,172 were slightly above YA and the 3-year Ave. The USDA is forecasting record soybean yields in IN at 62 bpa. Yields in NE are pegged at 59 bpa well above the 51.5 bpa from YA. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 35-65 mil. bu. for beans, 150-500k tons meal, and 0-20k tons for oil
WHEAT
Prices are lower across all 3 classes today with Chicago down $.10-$.13 while KC and MGEX were off $.09. It was an outside day for both Sept-24 KC and Chicago. Support for Sept-24 Chicago is the contract low at $5.14 ¼. Support for Sept-24 KC is $5.31 ¼. Wheat prices are being pressured by lower trade in Paris wheat futures along with a looming rail workers strike in Canada. Russian FOB prices are holding steady just below $220/mt. Ukraine’s grain exports for 2024/25 have reached 6 mmt since Aug. 21st vs. only 3.6 mmt YA. Wheat exports account for 2.8 mmt of this total. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry is considering limiting their wheat exports to 16.2 mmt for the 2024/25 MY. These comments had little impact on price as the USDA is already forecasting their exports to fall to 14 mmt, down from 18.4 mmt YA.
Charts provided by QST Charts.
>>See more market commentary here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
