Written Commentary
CORN
Prices dipped into the close finishing $.04-$.05 lower. New contract lows for both Sept-24 and Dec-24 contracts, albeit Dec-24 by only a $.00 ¼. Sept/Dec spread also carved out a new low at $.22 ½. No export announcements despite US soybeans and feed grains being competitively priced in the global marketplace into 2025. The BAGE held their Argentine production forecast at 46.5 mmt, vs. USDA at 50 mmt and Rosario GE at 49 mmt. They estimate harvest has reached 98%. This week’s widespread rains across the central Midwest will likely ensure US yields at 183+. With little fresh news to drive price direction it appears to be a standoff between farmers that still have old crop inventory and speculative traders that are holding a large short position, however well off the recent record.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mostly lower with beans down $.10-$.13, meal was $4-$5 lower while oil has recovered to close 10-50 higher. New contract lows for both Sept-24 and Nov-24, albeit Nov-24 also only by a $.00 ¼. Fresh 4 year lows for the spot beans. Fresh 3 ½ year low for spot oil before the recovery. Sept-24 meal appears to be carving out a tight range between $300-$310 per ton. Spot board crush margins bounced $.08 to $1.68 per bu. with BO PV improving to 39.7%. Good rains overnight across central IL and IN. These storms are brought scattered rainfall across southern OH today. Some additional scattered showers across the Great Lakes region and ECB this weekend with temperatures remaining mild. Dry in the southern plains with only scattered rains in the WCB over the next week. Extreme heat limited to the deep south and far western plains. In its annual report the EIA reported 5 renewable diesel plants were opened in the past year boosting output 44% to 4.33 bil. gallons annually with 22 plants in production. Recall in their monthly report the EIA showed that as of the end of May-24 biodiesel capacity was 2.022 bil. gallons annually with RD at 4.575 bil. or nearly 6.6 bil gallons combined. This was up 11% from the end of 2023. While capacity expands, California continues to move toward limiting the amount of RD produced from bean or canola oil.
WHEAT
Prices closed higher across all 3 classes in choppy 2 sided trade. MGEX was the upside leader closing $.06-$.07 better while KC and CGO were $.02-$.03 higher. Heavy rains this week in ND generating the support for spring wheat futures. Chicago Sept-24 appears stuck in a $5.15-$5.50 range. Same with MGEX between $5.75-$6.00. New contract low for Sept-24 KC and lowest price for the spot contract since Oct-2020. A German farm group lowered their expected grain harvest to 39 mmt, which if realized would be the lowest since 2018. Their wheat harvest is forecast to fall 13% to 18.76 mmt. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports wheat harvest is complete having gathered 21.7 mmt, in line with the USDA forecast of 21.6 mmt. The Russian Ag. Ministry jacked up their wheat export tariff over 300% to 828.40 rouble/mt for the period ending Aug. 27th.
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