Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures are lower on talk that US 2022 soybean crop could be record high. Traders are also concerned that Brazil 2023 soybean crop could also be record high. Finally, there is some concern that increase tension between US and China, increase China covid lockdowns and slower China economy could reduce their raw material imports including soybeans from US. USDA did announce 264 mt of US 2022/23 soybeans were sold to unknown. USDA rated the US soybean crop 57 pct G/E, unch from last week. Farm Futures est US 2023 soybean acres at 87.3 vs 88.0 this past year. SX tested key resistance near 14.06 but managed to close off session low. Like most commodities, soyoil futures have trended sideways but off season high due to concern about global vegoil demand.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower on some long liquidation at month end and talk futures, spreads and cash basis could drop when US harvest starts. CZ did bounce off session lows on short covering in front of 3 day US holiday weekend. Ukraine said that they have shipped 1.5 mmt of grains since the export corridor was opened. 62 pct was corn. Corn trying to deal with uncertain Ukraine corn exports, actual US 2022 final corn crop, SA 2023 crops and weather, strong cash basis and lower EU corn supply. USDA rated the US corn crop 54 pct G/E, down 1 pct from last week. Farm Futures est US 2023 corn acres at 94.3 vs 89.8 this past year. US corn inspections are 17 pct from last year. Some feel final US 2021/22 corn exports could end up slightly below USDA 2,450 mil bu. Still, US domestic cash basis remains firm as feeders, exporters and crushers need to buy corn to fill needs before US harvest. US farmer is bullish especially after Pro Farmer corn yield and want 7.00 CZ for his 2022 crop.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Weak commodity prices on fears of a slowdown of Global raw material demand and stagflation is triggering long liquidation and new selling. US HRW export prices are $50/60 dollars per tonne over Germany wheat. US SRW export price is $20/25 dollars per tonne over France. US HRS crop rating was increased 4 pct to 68. US and Canada HRS harvest yields are better than expected. Stats Canada wheat crop estimate confirms Canada wheat exports could be near 25 mmt vs 15 last year. USDA FAS has suspended indefinitely weekly US export sales report. Farm Futures est US 2023 all wheat acres at 48.4 vs 47.0 this past year. WZ had an inside day, unable to trade above the 50 DMA near 8.37 and next support is the 20 DMA near 8.00. Russia continues to offer wheat at discounted prices.
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