Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were down $.04 – $.05 today making fresh session lows in the last hour of trade. Spreads actually firmed up a touch. May-24 continues to run into resistance at its 50 day MA. Dec-24 broke support at its 50 day MA at $4.69. Corn plantings have reached 3%, matching the YA pace and just above the 5-year Ave. of 2%. Heavy rains have started to fall across the US Gulf coast and Delta regions. Some reporting stations in Eastern TX and Northern LA showing 4”+ over the past 24 hours. Localized flooding will cause planting delays along with the potential for some replanting. Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentine production forecast by 2 mmt to 53 mmt, which is between the BAGE at 52 mmt and the USDA at 56 mmt. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production between 1,058 – 1,083 tbd vs. the 1,073 tbd pace the previous week. The outlook for a mostly favorable start to plantings this month is capping any rally attempts.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with beans down $.05 – $.07, oil was 30 – 40 lower, while meal was steady to $1 lower. May-24 beans are nearing key support at last week’s low of $11.68 ½. May-24 oil for now held support at the late March low of 47.25. Next support below that is the 50 day MA at 46.94. The early rebound in May-24 meal was capped at its 50 day MA of $338.70. Spot board crush margins gained $.02 today to $.86 ½ bu. with bean oil PV holding steady near 41.5%. South American weather remains favorable. Good rains are expected to fill in across dry areas of MGDS and Parana by the end of the week. Rain events will also continue across NC and NW growing regions of Brazil keeping 2nd crop corn prospects elevated. Argentina is expecting a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next week to 10 days with heaviest rains to favor southern growing regions. The USDA announced the sale of 124k mt (4.5 mil. bu.) of soybeans to an unknown buyer.
WHEAT
With the exception of spot May-24 MGEX prices were lower across all 3 classes. Chicago and KC were down $.08 – $.10 while MGEX was mixed. Little rain is expected across the WCB with only trace amounts across the Northern plains over the next 5 days. Above normal temperatures are expected across much of the nation’s midsection into mid-month. Better prospects for rain for the southern plains by week 2 of the outlook. Winter wheat ratings were slightly better than expected holding steady at 56% G/E, and remain well above the 27% from YA. Conditions in Kansas, the largest producing state improved 1% to 49% G/E. The owner of Russian grain exporter RIF says his company has stopped handling agricultural goods at their Azov Sea terminal stating the Govt. has blocked their operations. The terminal handled roughly 4 mmt of agricultural good annually. Argus raised their Russian wheat production forecast by 2.1 mmt to 92.1 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 91.5 mmt.
Chart source: QST
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