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Ag Market View for Apr 15.24


Prices were $.03 – $.04 lower today, giving back half of Friday’s gains.  Spot May-24 remains stuck between $4.24 – $4.48.  Dec-24 remains stuck in the range from Mch 28th of $4.60 ¾ – $4.81.  Weekend weather was as expected with upper 80’s and even some low 90’s pushing as far north as SD.  The majority of the Midwest saw high temperatures in the 80’s.  Above normal temperatures will gradually give way to below normal readings by next weekend.  Rains this week will favor Iowa and surrounding states.  Export inspections at 52 mil. bu. were in line with expectations.  YTD inspections at 1.129 bil. are up 34% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 26%.  Mexico and Japan were the biggest takers at 17 and 12 mil. respectively.  In addition the USDA announced the sale of 165k tons (6.5 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico.  Last week Money managers were net sellers of 4k contracts of corn extending their short position to 263,554 contracts. 

QST Corn chart on 4.15.24
QST Soybeans chart on 4.15.24


Prices turned lower across the board today with beans down $.09 – $.16 as spreads widened, meal was $4 – $6 lower while oil was 35 – 45 lower.  It was inside trading day for May-24 beans having given back all of Friday’s gains.  Same story for May-24 meal with prices holding support near its 50 day MA at midday.  May-24 oil was unable to hold higher trade following a slightly bearish NOPA crush report.  Energy prices weakened following Iran’s weekend missile attack on Israel that resulted in minimal damage as nearly every missile was intercepted by Israeli defense systems.  Prices rebounded off their lows after Israel vowed revenge for the attacks.  In Brazil, rains thru the middle part of the upcoming week will improve topsoil moisture in Mato Grosso Do Sul and Parana.  Moderate rains in the far south in RGDS may delay remaining soybean harvest however will continue to support 2nd crop corn production.  Heavier than expected rains in Argentina will slow harvest operations, however will benefit later maturing crops.  NOPA members crushed a record 196.4 mil. bu. in Mch-24, however this was just below expectations of 198 mil.  Total implied crush for March will likely come in near 207.5 mil. bu. also a new high for any month.  YTD crush for the 1st 7 months of the 23/24 MY will have reached 1.377 bil. bu., up 5.3% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 4%.    Despite crush at the low end of expectations, oil stocks held by NOPA members rose to 1.851 bil lbs. above expectations of 1.792 bil.  Stocks rose from 1.690 bil. at the end of Feb-24 while matching the level from Mch-23.  Bean export inspections at 16 mil. bu. were in line with expectations.  YTD inspections at 1.398 bil. are down 18.5% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of down 15%.  AgRural estimates Brazilian harvest has reached 84%, vs. 86% YA.  Last week MM’s were net sellers of 1k contracts of soybeans, 12.5k bean oil, while being a net buyer of nearly 19k soy meal.  The MM long position in soybean oil lasted a total of 2 weeks.        

QST Wheat chart on 4.15.24


Prices were lower across all 3 classes today with Chicago down $.02 – $.04 while KC and MGEX were off $.05 – $.06.  While Chicago May-24 violated trend line support it held above the Mch-24 low at $5.40.  May-24 KC continues to consolidate near its 50 day MA at $5.83 ½.  Key winter wheat areas in the Southern plains to remain abnormally dry. Export inspections at 20 mil. bu. were at the high end of the range of estimates.  YTD commitments at 585 mil. are down 9% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 6.5%.  IKAR reports Russian wheat export prices held steady last week at $210/mt.  SovEcon reports Russian grain exports last week jumped 27% to 1.31 mmt, of which 1.14 mmt was wheat.  Wheat exports were up 39% from the previous week.  MM’s last week were net buyers of 5.376 contracts of Chicago wheat, 1,437 of MGEX, while being net sellers of 4,137 in KC. 

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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