Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans were mixed. SN ended near 16.65. SN continues to trade above the 20 DMA near 16.43. Resistance is near 17.00. US soyoil is cheapest vegoil. Drop is Black Sea vegoil exports, Argentina trucker strike, limit on Argentina diesel and increase India palmoil imports are helping soyoil. Talk of higher US biofuel demand and cancellation of delivery receipts is also helping soyoil. Argentina lowered their soybean crop rating. Argentina harvest delayed due to fuel shortage. US soybeans are competitive vs Brazil after July. USDA announced 132 mt US soybeans to China. Weekly US soybean export sales were 548 mt. Total commit is 56.6 mmt vs 60.7 ly. USDA goal is 57.5 mmt vs 61.5 ly. SN-SX is near +166. New US export demand could help spread test high near +191.
CORN
Low volume pre-Holiday corn trade. Some feel most of the bullish news are in corn futures. Drop in Ukraine exports should help US corn exports. Weekly US corn sales were near 1.3 mmt. Total commit is near 55.8 mmt vs 66.8 ly. USDA goal is 63.5 mmt vs 69.9 ly. May open interest dropped 25,000 contracts. Total open interest is near 1,604,000 contracts or up 14,000. Those who want to play this game are rolling to July. CK should gain on CN with no deliveries. Increase export trade should help CN gain on CZ. Some feel that US farmers will get the 2022 crop planted by mid May. China Jan-March meal exports are down 87 pct yoy. Covid lockdown could be limiting China hog import demand. US 10 days east Midwest weather forecast is wet with temp closer to normal. This weeks US ethanol stocks dropped. This due to potential for higher summer demand. Argentina lowered the crop ratings, Still nearby Argentina corn export prices continues to drop. Argentina lowered their corn crop rating and crop size. Matif corn slipped lower as some Ukraine corn may be slipping into Poland and Baltic for export. US Dollar was higher on more talk of US raising interest rates. Corn may have followed Crude higher. Talk EU may ban Russia oil imports helped Crude oil rally.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Wheat is a weather market. Noon American model pushed next weekend rains from TX panhandle and into OK to E CO and C KS. Our guy thinks this was right to move the rains north but American model is too wet. EU model is drier. Could be a place to buy KWN if true. Weekly US wheat sales were only 96 mt. Total commit is 19.2 mmt vs 25.1 ly. USDA goal is 21.4 vs 27.0 ly. Ukraine war remains positive to wheat prices. Egypt bought French wheat at a record high price. Black Sea and Baltic were not offered due to risk of shipping. Egypt paid $494 for French wheat. This a new record high. They may now look at India wheat that is offered near $325.
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