Ag Market View
Soybeans traded unchanged. Soyoil edged higher. Soymeal slipped lower. Corn traded lower. Wheat traded higher. US stocks were marginally higher. US Dollar as higher. Crude was lower. Gold traded lower.
Soybean closed unchanged. Trade is still trying to figure out US final 2020 supplies. US crop ratings are still above average. This weeks Pro Farmer tour continues to report pod count above last year and average. The tour will survey critical crops in IL and IA today. Most feel US crop needs a good rain to sustain high yield potential. Weather maps hint of rain next week. Dry weather is forecasted until then. Some feel it may be hard to sustain breaks and rallies in prices until more is known about final US soybean crop size. USDA announced 192 mt US soybean were sold to China for next market year. Weekly US old crop soybean export sales is estimated near 300-800 mt versus 570 last week. New crop is estimated near 2,000-3,000 mt versus 2,839 last week. US domestic soybean basis continues to slip lower. Most look for Nov soybeans to keep in a 8.75-9.25 range.
Corn futures slipped lower. Managed funds added to their net short. There is still uncertainty over final US corn acres and yield. Pro Farmer tour has moved through OH, IN, SD and NE. So far corn yields confirm USDA August guess. The tour is in W IA and IL today. They will be in the rest of IA and MN tomorrow. On Friday they will release their estimate of the US corn yield. USDA said they will resurvey Iowa acres for the September crop report. Along with the US crop trade is also trying to estimate the Ukraine 2020 crop and if current dryness will impact the Argentina 2021 corn crop. US corn crop needs one more good rain to achieve forecast yields. Next 7 days will be dry. Maps hint of rains on August 28. Weekly US ethanol production was down 1 pct from last week and down 9 pct from last year. Stocks were up 2 pct from last week and are down 13 pct from last year. Margins remain negative. Weekly US old crop corn export sales is estimated near 100-500 mt versus 377 last week. New crop is estimated near 400-800 mt versus 553 last week. Most look for December corn futures to remain in a 3.20 to 3.50 range.
Wheat futures traded higher. Rumors of China buying US PNW wheat offered support and limited new selling. Weaker Russian prices on talk of higher supply had triggered new fund selling in wheat futures. There are some estimates of the Russia crop between 82-84 mmt versus USDA 78. There was also talk that Russia 2021 crop could be near 90 mmt. Wheat futures have had a wild ride between 5.00 and 5.50. Drop was due to take of record World 2020 wheat crops. Lower corn prices also offered resistance. Covid related drop in global wheat demand alsoweighed on prices. Concern about US, Europe and Russia crops offered support. Wheat could continue in this range given talk of too much World supply versus China buying US wheat. Talk of higher World 2021crops and US farmer adding wheat acres in 2021 could limit the upside in prices. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 250-600 mt versus 367 last week.
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