Ag Market View
Quiet grain trade. Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and corn edged lower. Wheat traded higher. US stocks were higher. Crude was lower. US Dollar was lower. Gold was lower.
Soybeans edged lower. Noon US Midwest weather forecast continued to support a drier than normal US Midwest forecast. Temps start cooler than normal but turn warmer later in the forecast. Some feel this kind of forecast could take the top off US record yield estimate. Next week Pro Farmer will have their annual US Midwest crop tour. What a week. Prices traded initially lower on better US soybean crop conditions. The USDA report was bearish especially soybean but the market continued to rally. After the report, USDA FSA reported lower than expected US corn soybean acres enrolled in crop insurance programs. This triggered massive buying of soybeans. Rally also triggered massive farmer selling. Still US Q4 soybean exports could be record.
Corn futures edged lower. Noon US Midwest weather forecast continued to support a drier than normal US Midwest forecast. Temps start cooler than normal but turn warmer later in the forecast. Some feel this kind of forecast could take the top off US record yield estimate. Next week Pro Farmer will have their annual US Midwest crop tour. Historically, Pro Farmer does estimate a corn yield close to USDA final. What a week. Prices traded initially lower on better US corn crop conditions. Mondays US Midwest wind storm and a 2 week drier than normal US Midwest weather forecast triggered some short covering in corn. There was also some evening up before USDA August crop reports. The report was bearish but the market continued to rally. After the report, USDA FSA reported lower than expected US corn acres enrolled in crop insurance programs and higher corn prevent plant acres. This triggered massive fund buying of corn futures. Rally also triggered massive farmer selling especially corn.
Wheat futures trade held in a narrow rage. Talk of higher World supplies and slow start to the export year continues to offer resistance to futures. In front of the USDA report managed funds sold wheat futures looking for bearish numbers. The report was bearish wheat but funds returned as buyers when corn prices rallied due to a positive USDA FSA acreage report. Most feel final World production numbers should increase from this weeks USDA estimate. Some also fear the final demand could also drop. Covid continues to impact domestic US demand and global wheat imports. Russia and Baltic export prices continue to drop looking for export demand. US winter wheat harvest is done but drier weather in plains could reduce 2021HRW planted acres. This week KC wheat tended to gain on Chicago. This week, USDA estimated World 2020/21 wheat production near 766.0 mmt versus 764.1 last year. World wheat trade is estimated near 188.0 mmt versus 189.0 this year. For some the export number seems high.
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